A Tale of Two Referendums – Fear of Leaving EU has Little Effect on Pro-Independence Scots

Survation today releases further details on its Scottish Independence Referendum for the Scottish Daily Mail.

Yesterday’s Survation/Scottish Daily Mail poll revealed that those who would vote ‘No’ to Scottish independence are greater than those who would vote ‘Yes’ by 9 points (47% to 38%) if the referendum were held tomorrow.

Today, further details from this poll show that almost half of Scottish people (49%) would vote for the UK to stay in the European Union if a referendum were held tomorrow.

If there was a referendum held tomorrow on whether the UK should remain a member of the European Union, how would you be most likely to vote?

Scottish EU Referendum Table


One referendum on independence this September would not be enough for Scottish people – 63% are also in favour of a referendum on EU membership if Scotland were to become independent.

The Scottish Government believes an independent Scotland should be a member of the European Union. If Scotland becomes independent, do you think the Scottish Government should hold a referendum on European Union membership?

Independent EU Referendum

Fear of not being in the EU may be a factor in motivating some people to vote ‘No’ to an independent Scotland. 36% of ‘No’ voters said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso’s comments about the difficulty of an independent Scotland joining the EU would make them even more likely to vote ‘No’ to independence.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso this week said that membership of the European Union for an independent Scotland would be “extremely difficult, if not impossible”, because Scotland’s new membership would have to be approved by all other EU countries.

To what extent, if at all, does this affect how you are likely to vote in the referendum?

Barroso Effect 2

However, looking at the net figures for all Scottish people, just as many (21%) say that Barroso’s comments  make them more likely to vote ‘Yes’ to independence as those who say his comments make them more likely to vote ‘No’.

On top of that, just 3% of people who would vote ‘Yes’ to Scottish independence say that the European Comission President’s comments would make them more likely to vote ‘No’. This low number is balanced out by the 3% of ‘No to independence’ voters who are actually more likely to vote Yes after these comments.

It seems that, for the 35% of Scottish people who would vote to leave the EU, the notion that an independent Scotland might be barred from rejoining may be attractive rather than worrying.

Full data tables are available here.

By Katy Owen, Research Manager

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