Politics, Government & Current Affairs

Barnsley Central By Election – Survation Survey For The Mail On Sunday Correctly Predicted UKIP Strength and Lib Dem Vote Collapse.

*The Mail On Sunday’s original story commissioning Survation
“Back home, but now Clegg faces another drubbing in new by-election” can be viewed here;

Survation interviewed 507 registered voters in Barnsley Central between February 24 and 25.

Here are the results for the 5 main parties* last night as they compare to the Survation survey for the Mail On Sunday*

Survation Published Voting Intention Figures
Weighted, before undecided allocated to 2010 party vote Actual result
Dan Jarvis (Labour) 63% 66% 60.8%
Jane Collins (UKIP) 9% 11% 12.19%
James Hockney (Con) 13% 11% 8.25%
Dominic Carman (Lib Dems) 6% 2% 4.18%
Enis Dalton (BNP) 4% 5% 6.04%

*We did not break down voting support for “Others”

As you can see, actual results for the 5 national parties were very similar to those published in our survey.

Labour increased their share of the vote,  the Lib Dem vote did indeed collapse and the UKIP made a strong showing.
Who voted for UKIP in Barnsley Central?

Stated UKIP Voters in the Survation survey (n-22) who expressed a past vote intention at the 2010 General Election;

How did Liberal Democrat 2010 Voters vote in Barnsley? (n=25)

Our full original report can be viewed at the following link which contains further information on switching to UKIP from the major parties;

For more information on Survation’s Barnsley By Election Survey or to commission us for political polling or strategy
call Damian Lyons Lowe on 020 7490 4094 or 07590 821 301 out of office hours.

Please email press@survation.com if you would like to receive our politics press releases

Damian Lyons Lowe

Damian Lyons Lowe

Damian leads Survation's research offering, co-ordinating tech, social science & academic innovation to solve challenges. Damian has over 20 years of work experience within leading research environments including technology, healthcare, financial services and political science. He most enjoys co-ordinating the work of experts in their fields to provide genuine insights to commercial & non-commercial customers and friends to try to solve the challenges that exist within business and civil society.

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