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Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Leadership. Survation for Daily Mail, September 8th

Summary: Survation Poll for the Daily Mail September 8th.

Sample size 1,039. Fieldwork: 7th September 2018
Methodology: Adults aged 18+ living in the UK interviewed online
Full tables can be found here.

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State of the parties (Base: Respondents likely to vote with undecided and refused removed)
CON 38% LAB 37% LD 10% SNP 3% UKIP 4% GRE 1% PC 1% AP 5%

EU Ref Voting Intention: (ex und,ref) 

Remain 51% Leave 49% 

 

Key Points

  • Despite Theresa May having a negative (-10) favorability rating in polling published by Survation on September 1st (32% of the public are favourable toward the Prime Minister, 42% unfavourable) the public overall told Survation today they would be less likely to vote Conservative if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as leader of the Conservative party.

 

  • 41% of the public in our poll for the Mail today that were Boris Johnson Conservative party leader it would make no difference to their likelihood to vote Conservative. 31% said it would actually make them less likely with only 21% saying it would increase their likelihood to vote Conservative. 

 

  • When asked whether May or Johnson would make the best Prime Minister, 37% of the public said Theresa May and 31% Boris Johnson – the same amount (31%) as those saying they didn’t know.

 

  • Conservative 2017 voters however were much more likely to back May over Johnson – 55% of Conservative 2017 voters backed May for best Prime Minister, with only 29% saying Johnson.

 

  • When asked “From what you have seen and heard, who do you think has a better plan for Brexit?  The public marginally opted for Boris Johnson (34%) over May (28%) with a similar picture seen among Conservative voters – 38% backing Johnson over May (35%)

 

Leave / Remain Brexit Split

  • Those who voted leave in the EU Referendum significantly backed Johnson over Brexit by 51% to 20%. Remain voters significantly preferred May’s Brexit plan by 43% to 18% for Johnson.


Johnson divorce / infidelity allegations

  • While a significant amount of the public questioned (41%) believe that it is fair to judge a politician on the basis of his or her private life, an overwhelming majority – 64% (and 76% of Conservative voters) do not believe Boris Johnson’s alleged infidelity and divorce make him unfit to be Prime Minister – only 18% of those polled said the specific allegation made him unfit.

 

Commenting on the findings, Survation Chief Executive Damian Lyons Lowe said: 

“The polling shows the public are largely unconcerned over revelations regarding Johnson’s private life, and marginally prefer his Brexit plans over Theresa May’s – small comfort for Boris and his supporters. 

However, it suggests “Prime Minister Johnson” would be a vote loser for the Conservative party among voters in general and Conservative voters significantly preferring Theresa May as Prime Minister to Johnson. 

Despite the Prime Minister’s poor favourability ratings and the public’s clear view that Brexit negotiations are going badly,  Boris Johnson, on the evidence, would not appear to be the candidate to improve the fortunes of the Conservative party.”

 


Questions put with political party past vote breaks     

Q1. Which of the following statements is closest to your view? All CON PV LAB PV LD PV
It is fair to judge a politician on the basis of his or her private life 41% 43% 46% 44%
It is unfair to judge a politician on the basis of his or her private life 46% 48% 42% 49%
Don’t know   13% 9% 13% 7%

           

Q2. Imagine there were a general election tomorrow. Would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative if Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party? All CON PV LAB PV LD PV
More likely                           21% 29% 13% 8%
No more nor less likely    41% 42% 44% 35%
Less likely    30% 26% 35% 51%
Don’t know 9% 3% 8% 5%

 

Q3. Which of the following do you think would make the best prime minister? All CON PV LAB PV LD PV
Theresa May           37% 55% 30% 39%
Boris Johnson 31% 29% 30% 26%
Don’t know 31% 16% 41% 35%

 

Q4. From what you have seen and heard, who do you think has a better plan for Brexit? All CON PV LAB PV LD PV
Theresa May           28% 35% 24% 36%
Boris Johnson 34% 38% 34% 17%
Don’t know 38% 26% 42% 47%

 

Q5. A divorce between Boris Johnson and his wife Marina has been announced after reports of his alleged infidelity. Which of the following statements is closest to your view? All CON PV LAB PV LD PV
This makes Boris Johnson unfit to be prime minister 18% 16% 21% 11%
This does not make Boris Johnson unfit to be prime minister 64% 76% 59% 75%
Don’t know 19% 8% 19% 14%

 

British Polling Council Statement

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

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