Anna McHugh reflects on what we learned about the rise of Reform UK, running Channel 4 Dispatches’ “Will Nigel Farage Be Prime Minister?” focus group in Solihull, West Midlands.

Watch the full documentary here →

Two Hours with the People Who Could Put Farage in Power

Early last month, I sat behind the mirror in a small research facility in Solihull, in the West Midlands, to observe our Channel 4 Dispatches’ focus group exploring a question that few were asking even a year ago: will Nigel Farage be the next prime minister?

Commissioned to support a national polling project, Survation’s brief was simple: to get under the surface of the numbers and hear directly from the people who could be giving Reform UK a chance at the next election. What we heard was equal parts sobering, hopeful, and deeply polarising. This was not just a story about Farage or even Reform UK. It was about what happens when voters lose trust in every familiar name on the ballot paper, and decide to roll the dice.

Customer advisor Ash, 44, (second from left) felt that Reform UK would attract more support if it distanced itself from discriminatory rhetoric

Why Solihull? A political litmus test

If Reform UK hopes to win seats or cement its place as the opposition, it will need to convince voters in places like the West Midlands, where our polling places them ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives. Constituencies like Conservative-held Solihull West and Shirley, and Labour-held Birmingham Ladywood, are among dozens of key marginals suddenly in play – winnable, but far from guaranteed. 

These seats capture Britain’s diversity in ethnicity, age, and economic background, making them a critical test for Reform UK’s broadness of appeal. 

Our Solihull focus group brought together ten participants aged 22 to 61, from a mix of occupational and ethnic backgrounds and political histories, including Labour switchers, Tory deserters, and even one 2024 non-voter. Every participant was open to voting Reform in the next general election, but none were fully decided. 

Our focus group in Solihull brought together ten participants aged 22 to 61, from a mix of occupational, ethnic and political backgrounds

Disillusionment with the status quo

Reform, to many, wasn’t just a party. It was a protest. When asked why they were considering Reform, almost everyone started not with policy, but with frustration: at Labour, at the Tories and at politics in general.

“Even if they’re not right, they’re different…that’s enough for people my age” Dan, 26

“It needs a reform, it needs a refresh…It’s old and dated. It’s just not working anymore.”  Ricky, 33.

They highlighted wide-ranging frustrations, from anger over the Conservative government’s handling of Covid-19 and the “Party Gate” scandal, to scepticism about Labour’s capacity for genuine change. That scepticism was reflected across the country. Labour, nearly a year into government, holds a net favourability of -11% in our nationally representative poll for the documentary. The Conservatives aren’t faring much better at -2%. Reform UK, however, are at +3%, and leading national vote intention on 27%, ahead of both major parties (Labour on 25% and Conservatives on 21%). 

“Let’s be realistic – when have [Labour or the Conservatives] ever delivered?” Tina, 51

“I don’t think [Labour] have stuck to any of their policies.”  Maureen, 61

Sophie, 28, a GP Assistant Manager, said that after COVID-19 and Partygate she no longer has trust in any politicians 

The appeal of change: young voters drawn to Reform UK’s outsider status and social-media content

Reform’s popularity with older voters is well known. But what surprised us was how the party is cutting through emotionally and culturally with some younger voters. Dan, 26, praised Reform’s bold, meme-driven social media presence:

 “They speak a younger language. They get crypto. They get cancel culture.”

Interestingly, while 18-24s are still three times more likely to vote Labour than Reform, trust in Reform UK on the economy is almost identical across age groups – suggesting that younger voters may see the party just as seriously as older voters, even if many of them aren’t yet ready to back it at the ballot box.

Reform’s language of “freedom” and anti-establishment defiance resonated more than specific manifesto points across all ages of the group, including younger participants. Jess, 22, described the current climate as one of “walking on eggshells,” and said Reform’s bluntness was “attractive.”

Dan, 26, a full-time engineer, believes that Reform appeals to young people by championing free speech: ‘No one can say anything [nowadays]’

Headlines vs. deliverability: enthusiasm for tax cuts tempered by scepticism about feasibility

Nationally, a solid 56% of respondents support the proposal to raise the basic income tax threshold to £20,000 and it was, hands down, the most popular policy in Solihull. But it also drew some of the sharpest scepticism.

“If they’re going to raise the basic income threshold, what are they going to do to get that money back? They have to get the money from somewhere.” Ash, 44

Only 1 in 5 undecided voters polled nationally believe Reform UK can deliver its policies without resorting to more government borrowing, higher taxes, or public spending cuts. And to add insult to injury, 45% of all respondents believe that Farage is ‘lacking in economic credibility’.

Farage the leader: admired campaigner, but seen as untrustworthy and unprofessional

Nigel Farage loomed large in our group – admired for his communication skills, but rarely trusted. Younger participants described him as an “old uncle”, “slimy” and “untrustworthy”. 

Several participants cited his paid video appearances, on a popular website where fans can pay celebrities to record short personalized video messages, as damaging. “It’s just unprofessional,” said Dan. “The memes are going to come up when he takes power.”

Some wished he’d step back entirely. “I’d find the party more attractive if he wasn’t fronting it” said Jane. When asked ‘would you still vote for Reform UK if Nigel Farage weren’t the leader?’ Reform UK only dropped 3 percentage points without Farage, from 27% to 24% in the national poll. And public opinion is divided on Farage as prime minister, with 39% saying he would make a good PM and 43% disagreeing.

“I think he’s a great campaigner, but it’s whether he can deliver… I think that would be everyone’s concern across Britain if he became prime minister.” Ricky, 33

And yet, Farage holds the highest net approval rating of any leader (+3) and is seen as strongest on key traits such as decisiveness and being “in touch with ordinary people.” He leads on every characteristic surveyed, except for ‘understanding the economy,’ where Starmer edges ahead by a single point (22% to Farage’s 21%).

Anxiety about divisiveness, but Reform UK seen as a breath of fresh air by some

Support for Reform UK’s immigration stance is not universal. Among those intending to vote Labour, net support for three key immigration-related policies averaged 49%, compared to 77% among those backing Reform. 

Maureen, like others in the group, was uneasy about the pledge to scrap diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI) policies. Others compared the party’s tone to Trump’s America. For many, the party still represents a dangerous shift. 

“I don’t like any party that can possibly incite hate,” said Maureen, 61. “And I think sometimes they can go down that road.” Ash, 44, pointed to recent comments: “They need to stop the racism aspect… like you said about the burka.”

Nationally, 57% see Farage as divisive, and 58% worry Reform risks inflaming prejudice. Yet, for many, that bluntness is the appeal. 46% say Reform ‘speaks for people like me’. Rickie, 33, called the party: 

“A breath of fresh air… [they are] saying things others are too scared to say…they’ve got the finger on the pulse.” 

When asked whether they would like to see Farage as the next prime minister, 4 out of 10 of our undecided voters raised their hands

The takeaway

Farage strikes a chord with undecided voters, but they don’t fully trust him. They find themselves in an unlikely place in his Marmite effect: somewhere between love and hate.

Our Solihull voters felt a mix of admiration for Reform UK’s focus on ordinary people, its break from the stiffness of mainstream politics and its simple, tangible economic messaging, with anxiety about the party’s divisiveness and doubts over whether it can deliver. 

It’s a tough call. They’ve tried the Conservatives and they’ve tried Labour, and neither worked out. Though their reservations about Reform UK remain, so do their frustrations with the alternatives.

Want to hear what your voters, customers, or stakeholders are really thinking?

At Survation, we design and deliver research that goes beyond the numbers. We unpack qualitative insights that cut through assumptions and reveal what drives decision-making. If you’d like to commission a focus group, or explore other bespoke research solutions, get in touch with our team today at researchteam@survation.com

GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 2,010 participants aged 18+ in the UK. Fieldwork was conducted between 10th-11th June 2025. Tables are available here.

________________________________________

Survation. is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.

If you are interested in commissioning research or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact John Gibb on 020 3818 9661, email researchteam@survation.com, or visit our services page.

For press enquiries, please call 0203 818 9661 or email media@survation.com