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Conservative 6 point polling lead while a majority believe Labour is providing weak opposition

Summary

The Conservatives hold a 6 point lead over Labour, down from 8 points last week

Johnson’s lead over Starmer on key indicators is less strong nationally than when we asked the same questions in Batley and Spen, where Johnson beat Starmer on the NHS while nationally, Starmer has the advantage

A majority (56%) think Labour is providing weak opposition to the government in the House of Commons vs 27% who said it is strong.

25% of all respondents said they were more likely to vote Labour if Andy Burnham were leader (18% said less likely); however among those who voted Labour in 2019, 38% said they would be more likely to vote Labour again if Burnham led the Labour Party, 12% less likely.

Rishi Sunak is by far the member of the government with the highest net growth in favourability, and the only one we polled about with a positive rating.

Political polling

A new political poll by Survation sees a 6 point polling lead for the Conservatives. Dissatisfaction with Starmer and Labour is reflected in the polling, which shows that a majority (56%) believe Labour is doing a weak job as opposition in the House of Commons vs 27% who said it is strong. 46% of 2019 Labour voters believe Labour is providing “weak” opposition vs 41% who believed the party’s opposition was “strong”.

Overall, on headline indicators, voter intention and leadership ratings, Labour and Starmer, have slightly improved their position.

The Conservatives have a six point lead over Labour, by 41% to 35%, which is down from an eight point lead last week.

The leadership favourability ratings have Boris Johnson with a net rating of 0% (down 2 points from a fortnight ago) and Keir Starmer’s rating is unchanged at -9%. Boris Johnson’s net rating with 2019 Conservative voters is +57%, and Starmer’s with 2019 Labour voters is +25%.

Party favourability has the Conservatives on -2% (up 1 from a week ago) and Labour at -4% (up 2 points)

Government performance is at -2%, down 6 points in the past fortnight.

Boris Johnson leads Keir Starmer on who would make the best Prime Minister by 45%, down 1 point from two weeks ago with Starmer unchanged on 28%.

On leadership attributes, Johnson leads Starmer on charisma, strong leader, clear what he stands for, while Starmer leads on intelligence. trustworthiness and understands working class people. Note that in our phone poll of Batley and Spen, asking the same questions, Johnson led Starmer on all of these attributes except for understanding working class people.

On policy, Johnson is ahead of Starmer on Covid-19, economy and Brexit, while Starmer leads on the NHS. In our Batley and Spen phone poll, Johnson had a lead over Starmer on all of these, including the NHS.

We asked voters which of the two political leaders best represents different parts of the United Kingdom. Boris Johnson has a 28 point lead for the South of England, a 1 point lead for the North of England, and the two leaders are tied in Scotland and Wales.

On voters attitudes towards the main parties over the past 12 months, 30% have a more favourable view of the Conservative Party and 37% less favourable, while 29% have a more favourable view of Labour and 32% less favourable.

By 56% to 27%, the public believe Labour is currently providing weak opposition to the Government in the House of Commons. Of Labour voters in 2019, 46% believe it is providing weak opposition and 41% think it is strong.

Asking voters if they are more or less likely to vote Labour if there was a different leader, we found that Andy Burnham had the most appeal. Of all voters, 25% said they were more likely to vote Labour if he were leader and 18% less likely but of 2019 Labour voters, 38% said they would be more likely to vote Labour if Burnham was leader and 12% less likely.

Of all voters, 14% said they would be more likely to vote Labour if Lisa Nandy was leader and 23% less likely. From 2019 Labour voters, 17% said more likely and 15% less likely.

Of all voters, 11% said they would be more likely to vote Labour if Angela Rayner was leader and 24% less likely. From 2019 Labour voters, 16% said more likely and 20% less likely.

Performance of ministers and advisers during the pandemic

When asked to rate a series of the highest profile government figures’ performance during the pandemic (including Matt Hancock, who resigned during the fieldwork period), Rishi Sunak is the highest rated, and the only with a positive rating, at +19%, Matt Hancock has a rating of -26% and Dominic Cummings -33%.