Conservatives Set for Wipe Out in the North West


The North West contains 73 constituencies. On 2019 notional results, the Conservatives hold 31 seats and Labour 41, with the one additional seat belonging to the Speaker. Westmorland and Londsdale, which the Liberal Democrats currently hold, would have been won by the Conservatives had the previous election been fought on new boundaries.



Our latest MRP projection shows the Conservatives losing all of their seats in the North West. Labour are projected to win 69 seats, gaining 28 from the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats three, all from the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats currently lead Westmorland and Lonsdale, as well as in Cheadle and Hazel Grove - two seats the party lost in 2010.



These Labour gains include the successors to ‘red wall’ seats the party lost in 2019. Blackpool South, Bolton North East, Burnley, Bury South, Hyndburn, and Whitehaven and Workington are all expected to return to Labour on 4th July. Given the skinny margins by which the Conservatives won these seats - all have a winning margin below 9 points - these are some of Labour’s least surprising predicted gains.



But Labour are not only gaining in the red wall. Our projection suggests they are on course to win seats in the Conservatives’ wealthy Cheshire strongholds too. Labour are currently leading in Chester South and Eddisbury (38% Conservative majority), Congleton (37% majority), Macclesfield (20% majority), and Tatton (35% majority). In line with the proportional swings we are seeing throughout the rest of the country, in the North West the Conservatives are losing the most votes in the constituencies where they won the greatest share of the vote in 2019. 



In the map below, the darker areas represent the seats where the Conservatives won the most votes in 2019.



If we look at the constituencies where the party is losing the most votes, and colour the seats with the largest declines darker, we can see it maps nearly identically. 



The 2019 election has led many to hear ‘red wall’ when someone mentions the North of England. Yet Labour are currently reaching far beyond these seats, and into the Conservatives' northern strongholds where the party’s support has cratered. The Conservatives may well lose all of their seats in the North West.


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Survation conducted MRP analysis of 42,269 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 31st May - 13th June 2024. The full results are available to download here.


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