New polling by Survation shows the SNP continuing to lead on 38% (+3). Reform UK remain in second place on 20% (–), while Labour are on 18% (–2). The Conservatives are on 12% (–1%), and the Liberal Democrats unchanged at 10%. 

On regional list voting intention, the SNP (29%), Reform UK (19%), and Labour (17%) are all unchanged, while the Conservative and Greens are now level on 12%, with the Lib Dems behind on 9%.

Top Issues by Party

The cost of living is the biggest issue in deciding how people will use their constituency vote in the upcoming election (63% of respondents put in their top three issues), followed by healthcare and the NHS (50%) and asylum and immigration (32%). 

Broken down by party, cost of living again tops the agenda across all parties, but beyond this the picture diverges significantly. For those intending to use their constituency vote for Reform UK, two thirds (66%) say immigration and asylum is one of the top three factors in determining how they’ll vote, more than double the average of 31%. Scottish independence ranks second (40%) as a deciding factor for those intending to vote SNP, well above the next highest group – those intending to vote Green – at 17%. Conservative voters prioritise healthcare (57%) and the economy (47%), while Green voters stand apart in placing climate change third (42%).

Leader Favourability

John Swinney leads his rivals on favourability, with 42% of respondents viewing him favourably, though he remains net negative at -4%. He is followed by Nigel Farage at 33% favourable (-26% NET) and Anas Sarwar at 31% favourable (-19% NET).

Additionally, Survation also asked voters a series of head-to-head questions on which leader they’d prefer to see as First Minister of Scotland. In a straight choice between John Swinney and Anas Sarwar, 58% would prefer to see John Swinney as First Minister over Anas Sarwar (42%). When paired against Malcolm Offord, Swinney’s advantage widens further, with 68% preferring him as First Minister. In the final pairing between Anas Sarwar and Malcolm Offord, voters would prefer to see Sarwar as First Minister (60%) compared with Offord (40%).

Government Arrangement

Irrespective of how people intend to vote in the upcoming election, 47% of respondents say that they would like to see a government where only one party holds a majority after the Scottish Parliament election. In the event that no party wins a majority, voters’ next preference would be for the SNP to form a minority government (42% favourable), followed by an SNP-Green coalition (40% favourable). Among SNP voters, both arrangements are strongly favoured (69% and 73% respectively), while Conservative and Reform voters are strongly opposed to each. A government involving Reform UK is the most polarising outcome of all presented to respondents; while nine in ten Reform voters (90%) support this arrangement, it is opposed by the vast majority of voters for other parties, including 73% of SNP voters and 94% of Greens.

Independence

With election day imminent, the defining question of this election is whether the SNP can secure an outright majority in the Scottish parliament and what that may mean for the Scottish independence movement more broadly. 

Survation asked Scottish voters whether, in the event that the SNP wins a majority of seats at Holyrood, that would give the Scottish government a mandate to hold an independence referendum. A slim majority of respondents, 52% compared with 48%, believe this would give the Scottish Government a mandate to hold a further referendum on Scottish independence. Additionally, when asked the same question adjusted to whether a majority of seats held by pro-independence parties would constitute a mandate, again, 52% say this would constitute a mandate, against 48% who do not. 

With Swinney having made clear that an SNP majority would be interpreted as a mandate for a further vote, public opinion on this question is finely balanced, and the result on 7th May could set the terms of that debate for years to come.

GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,012 adults aged 16+ in Scotland on behalf of Diffley Partnership. Fieldwork was conducted between 17th – 23rd April 2026. Tables are available here. 

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