EU Referendum

A Vote to Leave.

 

The result of the UK’s Referendum on membership of the European Union – a vote to Leave, or Brexit – left many shocked in the early hours of Friday morning. The preceding months of bitter campaigning had taken its toll but, following the slightly surprising result – even prominent Leave campaigner Nigel Farage admitted he thought his side had lost at the close of polls – campaigners, politicians and pollsters are looking inward to see if anything could have been done differently to foresee the final result few expected.

 

Survation conducted a series of public telephone polling in the run-up to the referendum, with the first published on behalf of the Mail on Sunday in late February and the final, on behalf of IG Group, published on the 21st June, two days before voters went to the polls.

 

As can be seen from the chart below (plotted points indicate the last day of fieldwork, where fieldwork never began more than two days before), there appeared to be a gradual decline in support for Remain, and a gradual rise in support for Leave up to and including our poll towards the end of May. From there, the race became much tighter, with our undecided figure dropping considerably and Leave and Remain switching the lead, until our final poll converged at 44% Leave and 45% Remain.

 

 

Final Tracker

Speaking about this final poll to IG TV, Survation’s Chief Executive and founder Damian Lyons Lowe said:

 

“It would exaggerate the ability of a 1000 sample poll to say that this is a callable situation. I think it’s too close to call.”

 

In response to a question about whether we’d seen a race this close in polling before, Damian continued:

“It looks to us much tighter [than the Scottish Independence Referendum] and it will come down to factors such as turnout, the last days of the campaign and where public opinion shifts in the final moments before polling day.”

 

The whole interview can be seen below.

 

 

What happens now?

 

EU Referendum – Survation Polling for IG Group

Fieldwork, 1003 Respondents. June 20th 3.30pm to 9pm. Method. Telephone.

With less than 2 days until polling stations open, Survation’s final telephone polling on behalf of IG conducted yesterday shows “Remain” with a very narrow lead over “Leave”.

Leave 43.8%(+2.3% change compared to last Survation poll)

Remain 44.9% (-0.4% change compared to last Survation poll)

Undecided 11.3% (-1.9% change compared to last Survation poll)

Rounded results are as follows with comparisons to Survation’s latest poll in the Mail on Sunday (19/06) in brackets:

Remain 45% (NC) Leave 44% (+2)  Undecided 11% (-2) 

Excluding Undecided voters, headline results are:

Leave 49.3%(+1.5 % change compared to last Survation poll)

Remain 50.7% (-1.5 % change compared to last Survation poll)

What About The Undecideds?

Even though the number of undecided voters in the initial voting intention dropped by 3 points since our last poll, 11% of respondents say that they are still undecided with days until polling stations open on Thursday morning. These voters in the sample who told Survation that they were undecided were then “squeezed” with the question:

“If the referendum was today and you had to choose, would you vote to leave / vote to stay or would you not vote?”

Leave 49.5% (+1.4 % change compared to last Survation poll)

Remain 50.5% (-1.4 % change compared to last Survation poll)

Number of persons this represents: Leave: 402 persons. Remain: 410 persons.

Adding back these respondents into the initial leave/remain voting intention had the effect of a slight (1%) boost to the Leave figure. Rounds to:

Remain 50%  Leave 50%

Full data tables for this polling including all questions asked and the methodology used can be viewed here.

 

Previous IG poll results are as follows with changes from the previous Survation/IG poll (25/05) in brackets:

 

 

Remain 42% (-2) Leave 45% (+7)  Undecided 13% (-5)

 

VI

 

Excluding Undecided voters, headline results are:

 

Remain 48% (-6)  Leave 52% (+6)

 

What About The Undecideds?

Even though the number of undecided voters in the initial voting intention dropped by 5 points since our last poll, some 13% say that they are still undecided with a week until polling day. These voters in the sample who told Survation that they were undecided were then “squeezed” with the question:

“If the referendum was today and you had to choose, would you vote to leave / vote to stay or would you not vote?”

Some of these undecided respondents then stated their preference for leave or remain after this “squeeze” question.

Adding back these respondents into the initial leave/remain voting intention once again had the effect of a slight (1%) boost to the Remain figure:

 

Remain 49%  Leave 51%

 

Full data tables for this polling including all questions asked and the methodology used can be viewed here.

IG’s EU Referendum Barometer is currently showing a 58% chance that the UK will vote to Remain in the European Union. This week has seen a number of polls putting Leave in the lead which has seen their chances improve from 25% at the start of the week to an all-time high of 42% today.

The Barometer is an indicator of what those traders are predicting will happen in the 2016 UK referendum on membership of the European Union. The data is based on the political binary market IG has created for clients to trade on.

 

Matt Brief, Head of Dealing at IG Group, comments: “Today’s poll results reflect the general trend that has caused so much volatility in financial markets over the past week. The two key issues remain the economy and immigration, with the balance between these likely to be the key decider on which the UK’s membership of the EU stands or falls. Our clients still believe the economy will be the deciding factor on the 23rd June, they still believe there will be a late swing to the status quo – but it’s quickly becoming ‘too close to call’.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Previous polling:

 

Previous Survation polling showed  “Remain” continues to have a steady lead over Leave in the latest telephone poll in our series.

Results are as follows with changes from the previous Survation/IG poll (27/04) in brackets:

 

Remain 44% (-1); Leave 38% (NC); Undecided 18% (+1)

 

Excluding Undecided voters, headline results are:

Remain 54% (NC*); Leave 46% (NC*)

 

*For avoidance of confusion, Survation calculates +/- change based on unrounded decimal figures from poll to poll.

 

What About the Undecideds?

Voters in the sample who initially told Survation they were undecided were then “squeezed” with the question:

“If the referendum was today and you had to choose, would you Vote for the UK to leave the European Union / Vote for the UK to remain a member of the European Union, or would you not vote?” 

Some of these undecided respondents then stated their preference for leave or remain after this “squeeze” question. Adding back these respondents the initial leave/remain voting intention had the effect of a slight (1%) boost to the Remain figure:

Remain 55%; Leave 45%

The Respective Campaigns Are Not Swaying Voters (Yet)

Survation’s polling this year has shown voting intention for Leave between 41% and 46% and Remain between 54% and 59% (excluding undecideds) – a consistent picture despite the Leave and Remain campaigns beginning in earnest during this period.

 

Commenting on the findings, Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation said:

“In today’s polling for IG we also asked respondents to what extent they agreed or disagreed that Britain leaving the European Union would lead to an economic recession – comments that George Osborne and Prime Minister David Cameron made widely this week.  The extent to which voters agreed with this assertion was revealing.

Of those indicating that they would vote to Leave the EU, only 1% “completely agreed” with this statement compared to 10% of those indicating that they would vote to Remain, suggesting a reluctance on the part of all voters to be swayed by campaign messages. This may well explain the lack of movement in polling thus far.

Between now and referendum day, a series of major events from mainstream broadcasters – Sky News, ITN and the BBC’s Wembley event on June 21st – may change this and we’ll continue to monitor opinion for IG right up until polling day.”

Full data tables for this polling including all questions asked and the methodology used can be viewed here.

 

Screen Shot 2016-05-25 at 11.56.31 (1)

 

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union

April 26th – Remain 55% (-2); Leave 45% (+2)

 

Latest Scotland Polling Remain 76%, Leave 24%

 


Tuesday 26 April, 2016 – Survation, a leader in political polling and IG Group, a global leader in online trading have announced a new partnership to deliver a series of polls ahead of the EU Referendum on 23rd June 2016.

The collaboration will see three polls published in the run up to the EU referendum to provide IG clients with up to the date information to help them make informed trading decisions. The results will be broadcast on IG’s live video service that delivers the latest news and opinion on the financial markets at key points in the trading day. The first poll will be broadcast live at 1.30pm on Wednesday 27th April, in a show featuring Damian Lyons Lowe, Founder and Chief Executive of Survation, and Matt Brief, Head of Dealing at IG Group. It can also be viewed live on IG’s website.

The polls will be based on telephone interviews with over 1,000 adults across the UK. This methodology has proved to be the most accurate during the UK’s recent referendums on Scottish independence.

Alongside this polling data, IG has an EU Referendum Barometer measuring IG client sentiment ahead of the EU referendum vote on 23rd June. The data is based on the political binary market IG has developed for clients to trade on. As of 8am this morning IG clients believe there is a 75% chance of the UK voting to remain in the EU, which is the highest it has been in the campaign so far.

 

 

Damian Lyons Lowe, Founder and Chief Executive of Survation, comments, “Following on from our telephone polls earlier this year on the critical question of the UK’s EU membership, we are delighted to be partnering with IG Group for this new polling series. Survation will be using our custom telephone methodology used in our EU February and March polling, enabling IG’s clients to observe public opinion trend over time from tomorrow’s polling and onward heading toward the all-important June 23rd vote. Survation were both the most active (online and telephone) and accurate opinion polling company (our final telephone poll) during the UK’s last referendum – the Scottish Independence Referendum.”

 

 

Matt Brief, Head of Dealing at IG Group, comments, “The EU referendum is one of the key events facing financial markets in 2016. The pound fell to a seven-year low when the referendum was announced, as global traders responded to the possibility of the UK leaving the EU, and more volatility is expected as the referendum approaches. At IG we provide our clients with up to the date unbiased information, expert opinion and analysis tools via our website IG.com and our award winning trading platform and apps. These polls with Survation are an important aspect of this function. ”, “By providing both the data from our binary on the EU referendum with market leading polling from Survation we are helping equip clients with the information they require to make informed trading decisions.”

 

 

Previous EU Referendum polls this year:

25th May 2016 On behalf of IG Group, Survation conducted a telephone poll of 1,013 UK adults on their views about the EU Referendum. Polling was conducted on 24th May 2016. Data tables can be found here.

2nd May 2016 On behalf of the Daily Record, Survation conducted a telephone poll of 1,024 residents aged 16+ in Scotland on their voting intention ahead of the May 5th Holyrood Elections in Scotland. Fieldwork dates were 1st-2nd May 2016. Data tables can be found here.

27th April 2016 On behalf of IG Group, Survation conducted a telephone poll of 1,003 UK adults on their views about the EU Referendum. Polling was conducted on 25th-26th April 2016. Data tables can be found here.

24th March 2016 Survation conducted a telephone poll of 1,006 UK adults on their views about the EU Referendum. Polling was conducted between 17th – 19th March 2016. Data tables can be found here.

21st February 2016 On behalf of Mail on Sunday, Survation conducted a telephone poll of 1,002 UK adults on their views about the EU Referendum. Polling was conducted on 20th February 2016. Data tables can be found here.

 

 

For further information, please contact:

IG Group 

Chris Alfred PR Manager 020 7573 0319

Kieran McKinney Head of Investor Relations 020 7573 0026

Press@ig.com

Survation

Chris Hopkins 020 3818 9661

media@survation.com

FTI Consulting

Zaman Toleafoa 020 3727 1497

Joanna Starritt 020 3727 1741

 

 

 

About IG Group

IG is a global leader in online trading, providing fast and flexible access to over 10,000 financial markets – including shares, indices, forex, commodities and binaries.

Established in 1974 as the world’s first financial spread betting firm, IG’s aim is to become the default choice for active traders globally. It is an award-winning multi-platform trading company, the world’s No.1 provider of CFDs* and a global leader in forex, and it now offers an execution-only stockbroking service in the UK, Ireland, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands.

It is a member of the FTSE 250, with offices across Europe, Africa, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and the US, where it offers limited risk derivatives contracts via the Nadex brand.

*Based on revenue excluding FX, from published financial statements, September 2015.