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First UK Telephone Polling Conducted after David Cameron’s Renegotiation with EU Member Countries Shows “Remain” With a Clear Lead

On behalf of Mail on Sunday, Survation conducted the first UK national opinion poll by telephone in the aftermath of David Cameron’s announcement of his renegotiation agreement with other EU member states.

Fieldwork: Saturday February 20th, Sample size 1002

This is the first in a series of Survation telephone polls ahead of the June 23rd referendum. Keen EU poll watchers will note the difference between the top line figures in this new polling and that of Survation and other BPC firm’s online results, which have shown a tighter picture between Leave and Remain – a difference which will be of some discussion in the coming months.

Top Line Results

If there was a vote the UK’s membership of the European Union on June 23rd, with the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” How would you vote?

Leave 33%; Remain 48%; Undecided 19%

(excl. Undecided) Leave 41%; Remain 59%

EU Ref Phone poll

Among respondents who had seen or heard of David Cameron’s renegotiation (fieldwork began at 9am Saturday 20th Feb), voting intention for this question was tighter (n=646)

Leave 35% (+2) Remain 43% (-5) Undecided 21% (+2).

Polling also covered attitudes to key aspects of David Cameron’s renegotiation such as the “emergency brake” on migrant in-work benefits and the renegotiated Child Benefit agreement for EU citizens working in the UK.

Full tables are available here.

To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct telephone, face to face, focus group or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.

Chris Hopkins

Chris Hopkins

Survation's Senior Project Manager and all-round superstar from 2014-2018. Chris's only experience of failure during this period related to his loyal support of Colchester United and a close affinity with Ricky Gervais' character David Brent in the UK TV version of "The Office". Chris is currently Data Visualisation & Statistics Specialist at House of Commons. Chris graduated in 2013, having studied British Politics and Legislative Studies at The University of Hull School of Politics, Philosophy and International Studies. Course leader, Lord Norton of Louth.

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