How did UKIP’s rise affect the Lab/Con/Lib Dem Seat Position?
Whilst Labour clearly lost many votes to the SNP in Scotland signposted by Survation pre-election and to the Conservatives in the South of England, our most recent polling suggests the largest share of lost 2010 Labour votes in the North and Midlands went to UKIP.
While in other parts of the country UKIP took more votes from the Conservatives than Labour (and could be argued to have helped Labour), in the North of England it looks as though UKIP took around 10-15% more of its vote from Labour than the Conservatives. This trend may also have extended to some key Midlands marginals.
Where Labour’s lost votes from 2010 ended up, by region
What were the implications for Labour seats?
There are two cases to consider. Firstly, had those that moved to UKIP kept their vote share “take” evenly between Labour and the Conservatives respectively at least half a dozen seats in the North and Midlands, including Ed Ball’s Morley and Outwood seat, would have been held. However by taking disproportionately from Labour in these places, UKIP directly contributed to the Conservative victories, defences and gains.
If Labour had managed to abet the loss of these voters to UKIP, then they would have held or gained another 13 seats – enough to deprive the Conservatives of their majority.
What were the implications of this for Labour seats? – Those Labour 2010 voters that moved to UKIP from Labour instead of breaking from the Conservatives were the deciding factor in many Northern and Midland seats. By taking disproportionately from Labour in across the North, UKIP directly contributed to a series of Conservative victories and also to Labour’s failures to gain seats.
Clear-cut examples from these regions, where the Conservative majority was less than the number of Labour 2010 voters lost to UKIP, are shown below:
Bolton West – CON GAIN by 801 votes over Labour. UKIP 7428 votes.
Bury North – CON HOLD by 378 votes over Labour. UKIP 5595 votes.
Morley and Outwood. CON GAIN from LAB/Co-op. 422 votes over Labour. UKIP 7951 votes
Derby North. CON GAIN from LAB. 41 votes over Labour. UKIP 6532 votes.
Telford – CON GAIN 730 votes over LAB. UKIP 7330 votes.
Weaver Vale – CON HOLD by 806 votes over LAB. UKIP 4507 Votes
This is based on regional data but given the seat-by-seat variations of how much UKIP likely “took” from Labour, the true figure for the number of seats lost as a result of UKIP’s regional strength will be even higher.
This analysis is based on regional data, but given the seat-by-seat variations of how much UKIP probably took from Labour the true figure for the number of seats lost as a result could be even higher.
Further seat examples would be:
Plymouth Moor View
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Vale of Clwyd
The data used here is from three sources. To see a summary table of voting intentions/cast votes for 2010 Labour voters, click here.
To view tables for the Post-Election Poll, on behalf of the Mail on Sunday, click here.
To view tables for the General Election Final Phone Poll, click here.
To view tables for the Final General Election Poll (for this analysis only data from the final day was used), on behalf of the Mail on Sunday, click here.