Labour members are unequivocal. If there is to be a leadership contest, the man to take over from Keir Starmer is the King of the North, Andy Burnham. The Mayor of Greater Manchester was the top choice of two-fifths (42%) of members, leading his nearest rivals, Wes Streeting (11%) and Angela Rayner (11%), by 31 points. Overall, almost two-thirds (63%) had Burnham in their top three among the possible candidates. Rayner was in the top three preferences of half (50%) of the membership, while Streeting fell below Ed Miliband with just shy of a third (32% accounting for rounding).

The membership is Team Burnham, but what about the public?

We put the same question, with an identical list of candidates, to the general public. Whilst a majority (53%) had no preference – fuelled, in large part, by 55% of would-be Reform and 53% of prospective Conservative voters choosing no candidate – Andy Burnham nonetheless comes out on top with those expressing preferences. That being said, the margin is notably slimmer. 15% of the public have Burnham as their first preference, 10 points ahead of Ed Miliband (5%) and Angela Rayner (5%). Wes Streeting falls to fifth among the public on 4% of first preferences, a point behind Yvette Cooper (5%). 

Burnham appears in the top three preferences of a quarter (26%) of the British public to be the next Labour leader and prime minister, followed by Rayner (19% accounting for rounding), Cooper (18%), Streeting (18%), and Miliband (16%). With Burnham undoubtedly the public’s preference, whether he can win back lost Labour voters is another matter entirely. 

Burnham as leader would significantly improve attitudes towards the Labour Party

Only Andy Burnham would notably improve the Labour Party’s image in the eyes of the public. Under his leadership, favourability towards the Labour Party would increase by a net +19% – the only others with net positive scores are Cooper (+5%), Streeting (+5%), Louise Haigh (+3%), and Lucy Powell (+2%). 

Across all 2024 voters and party voting intention groups, Andy Burnham generated net positive favourability scores – the only candidate to do so across the board. Looking at the former, net favourability was +33% among 2024 Labour voters, +27% with Liberal Democrats, and +26% with the Greens. The figures for Streeting, for reference, are +11%, +9%, and -3%. 

Looking at voting intention, a similar story reveals itself amongst those looking towards progressive parties, but Burnham also takes a not insignificant chunk of prospective Conservative and Reform voters. He brings in net favourability scores for the Labour Party of +12% (Conservatives) and +16% (Reform UK). Again, as a point of comparison, Streeting gets +5% amongst both Conservatives and Reform UK considerers, with Cooper receiving +1% with Conservatives and -5% with Reform UK intending-voters. 

Will Labour’s best hope be enough?

The data suggests that Burnham is clearly the strongest candidate to turn the Labour Party’s fortunes around. He is by far the top preference amongst the membership, leads the pack with the general public, and has the potential to generate more favourable attitudes towards the party across the nation’s fragmented voters. If he is able to take part in a leadership contest and be victorious, what we cannot say from the data is whether or not he could do enough to see Labour lead in the polls once again. Nonetheless, he offers the best chance of such a reality coming to fruition. 

________________________________________

Get the data
Survation conducted a poll of 1,078 Labour party members via LabourList’s database on behalf of Compass between the 30th April – 5th May 2026. Tables are available here.

Survation conducted a poll of 2,017 UK residents aged 18+ on behalf of Compass between the 29th April – 1st May 2026. Tables are available here.

________________________________________

If you are interested in commissioning a poll or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact John Gibb on 020 3818 9661, email researchteam@survation.com or visit our services page.

For press enquiries, please call 0203 818 9661 or email media@survation.com

Survation. is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.