In Survation’s final Westminster voting intention poll conducted with Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister, Labour and Reform UK are tied on 24% each. The draw comes after Reform led this series for more than a year. Labour are also up five points compared to our 17th June poll, their largest single upward movement since the 2024 General Election, while Reform are down three, their lowest share since the weeks following the May 2025 local elections. The Conservatives gained a point, moving to 21%, with the Liberal Democrats slipping one point to 11%, and the Green Party steady.

Labour’s 24% is their highest with Survation since 20th November 2025. It comes in the week Keir Starmer leaves as Labour leader and Andy Burnham takes over, becoming Labour leader on Friday 17th July and Prime Minister on 20th July, and the polls’ fieldwork of 10-14 July coincides with Burnham’s imminent takeover as Labour leader. Of course, a single poll is not a trend; the picture should become clearer over the next months once Andy Burnham is Prime Minister.

Naming Burnham no longer moves Labour’s number

We put the voting intention question to respondents a second time, on this occasion prompting each party with the name of its leader. Under that framing, Labour led by Andy Burnham stands at 24%, against Reform UK led by Nigel Farage on 24% and the Conservatives led by Kemi Badenoch on 20%. Attaching Burnham’s name to the Labour ticket produces little to  no difference in the topline figures for Labour or their main competitors, a possible indication that Burnham has already been seen as the de-facto leader for some weeks. 

Fieldwork ran from 10th to 14th July, by which point Burnham’s future as Labour leader and Prime Minister seemed all but assured. Respondents answering the unprompted question may well have had him in mind already. What this does suggest is that there is no reservoir of additional support waiting to be unlocked once voters are prompted with his name from next week.

Starmer departs with the worst ratings of any leader we test

Keir Starmer ends his premiership with 22% of the public saying they like him against 55% who do not – a net score of -33. He is the most disliked of the five leaders we tested, below Zack Polanski (-21), Nigel Farage (-18) and Ed Davey (-3). Kemi Badenoch is the only leader in positive territory on +4, with 36% liking her against 32% who do not.

Asked which leader most demonstrates each of a series of traits, 38% picked Starmer as the most out of touch with ordinary people – the highest score any leader records on any characteristic tested, and well clear of Farage on 27%. On strong leadership he finishes last of the three leaders in that question on 16%, behind Farage (24%) and Badenoch (22%).

Confidence in his ability to handle individual issues is negative across every one of the ten areas we asked about. His least bad score is education, where 22% are confident against 50% who are not (-28). His worst is immigration: 17% confident, 61% not, a net of -43. Refugees and asylum seekers (-41) and the economy (-36) follow closely behind.

Burnham’s inheritance

Labour goes into the change of leader in a better position than at any point in eight months, and level with a Reform party that has led for more than a year. Labour still has work to do to win back voters: two in ten (20%) say they feel closest to Labour, barely ahead of Reform on 18% and the Conservatives on 17%, while 21% feel close to no party at all. Labour as a party still carry a net like score of -16, worse than both Reform (-11) and the Conservatives (-6).

The public appears ready to move on from Keir Starmer. Labour’s ability to take the lead from Reform could largely depend on how Andy Burnham and his policies are received. Judging by the numbers, the public may have already regarded him as the leader for some time.

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 2,057 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 10th–14th July 2026. Changes are versus our poll of 17th June 2026. Tables are available here.

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