Labour failing to win over enough of Britain’s Progressive Majority, with Reform still top of the polls
Reform UK continues to lead in our Westminster voting intention polling on 29% (-1 since September). Those lagging behind remain in the same order, with: Labour slipping slightly to 22% (-2), Conservatives down on 18% (-1), the Liberal Democrats up to 12% (+1), and the Green Party entering double digits with 11% (+3).
Amongst Survation’s and 38Degrees’ Progressive Majority segments – more on which can be read here and here – Labour fare better, but evidently not to the extent needed to turn the tide. They boast a 33% share of voting intention amongst progressives who would vote if an election were to take place tomorrow, followed by the Liberal Democrats on 19% and the Green Party on 16%. Significantly, the Conservatives and Reform UK both cling to 12% of the would-be progressive vote.
The data suggests that Labour are not seen as the broad-church amongst progressives that they need to be in order to stave off electoral threats from the right and left – and unite this fragmented electoral base ahead of the next general election. Faith in Keir Starmer’s ability as party leader and levels of trust in the Labour Party across various policy issues provide some clues as to why progressives are not rallying around the governing party.
A problem of leadership?
When asked to evaluate Keir Starmer’s performance as Labour leader, almost half of the progressive majority said he was not doing well (47%), with 39% reporting that he was. In fact, more respondents from the progressive majority felt that Nigel Farage was doing well as leader of Reform UK (41%), matched by the numbers who felt he was not.
Tentative trust in the Labour Party
Whilst a plurality of progressives trust Labour on some of the most leading issues of the day – health and the NHS (35%), the economy generally (31%), cost of living (30%), and immigration (26%) – this still leaves roughly 7 in 10 progressives who trust another party more, or no party at all. With combined trust in progressive parties accounting for a majority across these four issues (except immigration, where combined trust is 49%), this data underlines the fragmented nature of Britain’s Progressive Majority, and the scale of the task facing Labour if they hope to win over a greater share of progressive support.
On the cost of living, roughly a quarter of progressives trust the Conservatives and Reform more than they do Labour when combined (26%), with health and the NHS nearly 3 in 10 (29%) have more faith in the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, and it’s a similar story for the economy in general. Regarding immigration, they are rivalled most closely by Reform UK, who garner 20% of progressive trust on the issue. If the Labour Party cannot be seen as the most trusted party on some of its bread-and-butter issues, hemorrhaging support to both non-progressive and progressive rivals alike, then it is little wonder voters have wandering eyes.
The power of Britain’s Progressive Majority
The five segments making up Britain’s Progressive Majority could potentially determine the next general election if a party can bring together their shared priorities, values, and motivations. Their electoral strength lies in their unity, which can only be achieved through the right strategy. At the moment, the data indicates that Starmer and the Labour Party are failing to do this to the extent necessary to unlock the Progressive Majority’s full potential. Starmer is uncomfortably rivalled by leaders of non-progressive parties, and Labour lacks the overwhelming trust it needs amongst progressives on issues that are core to its founding ideals.
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GET THE DATA.
Survation conducted an online poll of 2,082 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 16th–20th November 2025. Tables are available here.
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