Labour Maintains a Stable 17 Point Lead

As we build-up to the General Election, Survation will begin publishing regular voting intention figures and political trackers every other Friday. If you would like to field a question in our regular omnibus polling, please contact


In this first iteration, Labour maintains a robust 17 point lead over the Conservatives. Just 55% of 2019 Conservatives currently intend to vote for the party again, with 14% intending to vote Labour, 11% Reform UK, and 16% Undecided.

The Labour lead is stable, and we see little change from our voting intention figures published in December.

Starmer leads Sunak by 6 points on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, although ‘
Don’t know’ currently leads both. While Labour have a robust lead over the Conservatives, it is not driven by the belief that Keir Starmer would be a better PM. The issues which matter to voters are the fundamentals – the cost of living and the NHS/public services – and people do not trust the Government on these key issues.

However the question of who would make the best Prime Minister tends to favour the incumbent – who has the advantage of actually being the Prime Minister… When it comes to leadership approval, Sunak is -28 among all voters. In contrast, Starmer is +5. At -17, the Leader of the Opposition has a better net approval rating than the Prime Minister even among Leave voters. Sunak is seen as much more out of touch than Starmer, also trailing his opposition number on empathy, decisiveness, competence, and strong leadership – although he does lead on intelligence.


The Labour leader, and the Shadow Chancellor, are both more trusted than their Conservative counterparts on the economy. 


Get the data

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,042 adults aged 18+ living in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 30th -31st January 2024. Tables are available here.


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