Labour narrowly lead Conservatives in new large sample voting intention results
Survation’s recent large sample survey of the British public on their attitudes to Brexit also contained a Westminster voting intention question. The newly tabulated results for Westminster voting intention show a narrow Labour lead over the Conservatives.
If replicated in a general election, these figures and our most recent Scotland only voting intention figures would produce the following type of seat estimates, using a simple model – Baxter’s strong transition model in this example:
Survation polled 20,090 people aged 18+ in the UK. Fieldwork was conducted online between 20th October – 2nd November 2018.
Data tables and methodology are available here.
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BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.