It’s a two-horse race between Reform and Plaid Cymru as Labour are pushed to distant third place in our Senedd Voting Intention poll, conducted on behalf of the University of Aberystwyth, and published by S4C.

In the first Senedd Election held under a new proportional representation system, with 96 members elected from 16-member constituencies, Labour’s 27-year run as the largest party in the body and winner of every Senedd election since its establishment in 1999 appears set to end on Thursday, five years after having come one seat short of a majority in the 2021 election. The party is now staring down the barrel of coming third behind Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, earning just 15% of the vote in our data – down 21 percentage points since 2021, and ushering in a new era of coalition politics.

What are the possible coalitions?

Inputting these figures into the Cavendish Cymru Senedd seat projector produces the following seat counts. Reform and Plaid emerge with the most seats yet neither are close to the 49 seats needed for a majority, and the possibilities for a governing coalition are extremely slim.

Of course all of this hinges on whether Labour or the Conservatives are prepared to serve as junior partners in coalitions with parties that were once their smaller rivals.

Reform’s unprecedented rise in Wales

Having only secured 1% of the vote in the 2021 election, Reform are now poised to top the Senedd election, earning 30% of the vote, a 29 point increase. Its support is strongest among male voters (34%), those aged over 65 (37%), and in Mid and West Wales (34%). And in a further sign of replacing the Conservatives as the main centre-right party, Reform are now set to capture 54% of the 2021 Conservative vote, more than what the Conservatives themselves are retaining of their prior vote (37%). Labour faces its own retention problem, with only 44% of its 2021 voters intending to vote for the party, and 21% moving to Reform.

Plaid continues its upward march

Plaid Cymru are set to win 28% of the vote, up 7 points from the party’s performance in 2021.  Following the party’s victory in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, taking the seat off Labour, they have continued to successfully win over former Labour voters. Of those who voted Labour in the 2021 election, 22% now intend to vote for Plaid, and the party has done well retaining its 2021 voters also, with 75% planning to vote for Plaid again. The party is strongest among younger voters (40%), those in North Wales (31%), those who speak Welsh fluently (52%), and people expressing a distinct Welsh national identity (43%).

The role of national identity

National identity, and the strength of that identity appears to be playing a strong role in determining vote choice in this Senedd election. Those who consider themselves Welsh not British, or More Welsh than British are voting for Plaid Cymru in higher numbers than the other parties. Meanwhile, Reform is strongest among those who consider themselves More British than Welsh and British Not Welsh, while also being the top choice of those who consider themselves Equally Welsh and British.

A political earthquake, made in Wales 

Our poll points to a watershed moment in Welsh politics. After 27 years as the dominant force in the Senedd, Labour faces the prospect of finishing third behind both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. Reform is rapidly replacing the Conservatives as the party of right-leaning, British-identifying voters in Wales, while Plaid has cemented its position as the natural home of Welsh-identifying, left-of-centre voters, steadily absorbing Labour’s former base and those dissatisfied with the performance of the national party at Westminster. Caught between these two surging forces, Labour and the Conservatives are being squeezed from both sides. With no obvious route to a majority and several potential coalition arrangements falling just short of the 49-seat threshold, Wales is entering unfamiliar political territory. Whatever the outcome on Thursday, the results of this election look set to reshape Welsh politics for years to come.

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,065 adults aged 16+ in Wales on behalf of University of Aberystwyth. Fieldwork was conducted between 17th -23rd April 2026. Tables are available here.

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