Reform UK leads the Westminster voting intention in Survation’s latest poll, taking 27% of the vote share (unchanged from last month’s poll), ahead of Labour on 26% (+2) and the Conservatives on 19% (-1%). The result is one of many recent polls confirming Reform’s momentum, but it also reflects a deepening voter dissatisfaction with the political status quo – and uncertainty about who is best placed to govern.

Our poll indicates a growing inclination toward alternative political options amid persistently low confidence in established parties and their leadership. Despite Reform’s lead, questions remain about how much of its support reflects genuine endorsement versus protest against traditional parties.

Reform’s rise driven by older voters – Labour still dominant with the under-45s

Reform UK is the most popular party among voters aged 45 and over, with particularly strong support among the over-65s. Among those aged 18-34, Labour still retains a commanding lead, while the Green Party also registers double-digit support in the youngest age group polled at 24% for 18-24 year olds.

Our poll confirms that Conservative support is now heavily concentrated in the 65+ age group, with limited traction among younger voters. The Lib Dems maintain modest support across all age groups but remain well behind the top three, particularly with older age groups.

Leadership ratings show lack of consensus – but Starmer leads, for now

Keir Starmer remains the public’s preferred prime minister, with 31% choosing him (-1% on previous poll) – but that lead is narrow. Nigel Farage trails just behind on 26% (-2%), while a significant 29% (+3%) of respondents polled said they “don’t know”. Kemi Badenoch, tested in this wave, polled at 14% which is unchanged from our previous poll.

The high “don’t know” figure suggests many voters remain unconvinced by any of the current options. Farage’s rating reflects his consolidation of Reform support, while Starmer’s lead owes more to low resistance than strong enthusiasm – particularly as he also tops both positive and negative leadership trait scores.

Policy trust remains fragmented – no party dominates

When asked which party respondents most trust on a range of policy issues, voters offered no consistent answer. Labour leads on health, education, and housing, while Reform is trusted most on immigration and crime. Despite Labour’s perceived proficiency in these policy areas, this isn’t translating to overall voting intention. Similarly, although Reform now leads in voting intention, the Conservatives still retain a narrow edge over Reform on some key policy areas such as defence, pensions, education, foreign policy, and the economy generally.

The Green Party is most trusted on climate change – but support is diffuse across issues, and “don’t know” responses remain high. This suggests that while Reform is capitalising on specific concerns, particularly around immigration and crime, broader confidence in any party’s competence remains low.

Government performance ratings under water – voters unconvinced one year in

In our poll, respondents were asked:

“Overall, how would you rate the Labour government’s performance after one year in power?”

The results show that just 44% rated it as “very good” or “fairly good”, compared to 49% who said it was “fairly poor” or “very poor”. The net rating stands at -5%, with more people saying the government is doing badly than well. Similarly, nearly a third of Labour voters rated the government’s performance negatively, with more than one in 10 Labour voters saying the government’s performance has been “very poor”. Unsurprisingly, among those who intend to vote reform at the next general election, over half said that the government’s performance has been “very poor”.

While not catastrophic, the result underscores a national mood of broad frustration and unmet expectations. Among the general public, the proportion of respondents giving a strongly negative rating (27% “very poor”) is more than double those offering a strongly positive one (13% “very good”), suggesting enthusiasm has faded – but not entirely collapsed.
There remains a significant middle ground: 31% still describe the government’s performance as “fairly good”, pointing to a public that is more disappointed than hostile – a sentiment that may still be recoverable for Labour ahead of future elections.

Strikingly, nearly four in ten Britons feel the UK is now worse off than under the previous Conservative government, compared to just over one in four who believe it is better off. This sharp divide reflects a growing polarisation in public opinion, not only in response to Labour’s first year in office, but as part of a deeper and more persistent uncertainty about the country’s political direction. While Reform continues to lead in our polling, these latest insights into public sentiment raise further questions about whether its rise stems from genuine appeal – or from widespread dissatisfaction with the government more broadly.