Conservative share losses plateau, but a long road back to 2019. New MRP Regional Vote Share Estimates.

In conjunction with the projects we’re working on for 38 Degrees, we’ve updated the MRP voting intention model we produce with Professor Chris Hanretty over at Royal Holloway, University of London.  Today, we’ve had a look at parties’ current vote share estimates across regions of Great Britain compared to the state of the parties in our prior model update – December 2021 and at the General Election in December 2019.

We surveyed adults across Great Britain in March 2022. Table 1 shows the vote distribution by region from our MRP modelling of constituency vote shares.

Constituency vote share, aggregated by region. 

Table 1.


Changes vs GE 2019.

Looking at comparisons, despite some recent improvement in support for the Conservatives (Table 3) fortunes have decreased significantly since the 2019 General Election. Looking at the regions, higher than average vote share losses for the Conservatives are apparent in South East, South West & Scotland, with the worst areas for the party relative to the General Election being in Eastern, West & East Midlands.

The Labour Party are the main beneficiary of Conservative underperformance. Regions where Labour are outperforming the Conservative share loss, such as in the South East and South West are those where the Lib Dem vote has been the most squeezed – the Lib Dems are -6.7% and -7% down from their General Election performances. The Green Party are polling towards 2x their 2019 vote share in many regions, with the exception of Scotland, where the SNP have made progress. 


Table 2.


Conservative vote share losses plateau since “partygate” peak

In the past three months, the Conservative decline in vote share has plateaued, with small increases (2%) in all regions between December 2021 and March 2022. While Labour remain ahead overall, the lead has squeezed somewhat. There’s no regional trend to be observed


Table 3.


Survation conducted an online survey of 2034 adults aged 18+ in the UK on behalf of 38 Degrees. Fieldwork was conducted between 4 and 7 March 2022. The modelling is based on surveys of 8,002 UK adults including this study, conducted 11 November 2021 – 7 March 2022. MRP data tables are available here and here. Topical data tables are available here. To find out more about MRP: https://www.survation.com/what-is-mrp/


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BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

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