Politics, Government & Current Affairs EU

New EU Referendum Poll shows ‘Leave’ Continue to Lead

Our first EU Referendum poll of 2016, on behalf of the Mail on Sunday, shows ‘Leave’ slightly extending its lead over remain since our last poll of 2015.


EU Ref VI excluding Undecided (comparisons from 10,000 sample Survation poll, fieldwork 30th Nov – 3rd Dec 2015)

Remain 47% (-2);  Leave 53% (+2)


EU Ref VI including Undecided (comparisons from 10,000 sample Survation poll, fieldwork 30th Nov – 3rd Dec 2015)

Remain 38% (-3); Leave 42% (NC); Undecided 21% (+3)


EU Ref full size

  • Around one in five (21%) people remain undecided about which way to vote if a referendum was held tomorrow – up 3 percentage points.
  • This is the first time since Survation asked the ‘new’ EU Referendum question that either campaign has held onto its lead from a previous poll.
  • As renegotiations over the UK’s EU membership continue, nearly a third (32%) believe David Cameron is handling renegotiations badly, compared to less than a quarter (24%) who believe he is handling them well.
  • Other questions show whether Boris Johnson & Theresa May could affect the EU Referendum outcome if they lead the ‘Leave’ campaign, and whether Britons think David Cameron should resign as Prime Minister if the UK votes to leave the EU.
  • Survation polled 1,017 GB & NI adults aged 18+ online between 15th – 16th January 2016. Standard margin of error 3.1%.

EU Ref tracker full size


Survation polled 1,017 UK adults aged 18+ from the 15th – 16th January 2015. Full data tables for this poll are available here.


To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.

Chris Hopkins

Chris Hopkins

Survation's Senior Project Manager and all-round superstar from 2014-2018. Chris's only experience of failure during this period related to his loyal support of Colchester United and a close affinity with Ricky Gervais' character David Brent in the UK TV version of "The Office". Chris is currently Data Visualisation & Statistics Specialist at House of Commons. Chris graduated in 2013, having studied British Politics and Legislative Studies at The University of Hull School of Politics, Philosophy and International Studies. Course leader, Lord Norton of Louth.

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