Polling on new EU Referendum question shows “leave” lead for first time since November 2014
On behalf of the Mail on Sunday, Survation is the first polling company to conduct an opinion poll based on the new EU Referendum question wording after its recommendation by the Electoral Commission and approval by the Prime Minister.
Conducted online over the 3rd – 4th of September, Survation asked respondents the new proposed ballot paper question and asked them how they would vote if the referendum was held today. Full data tables are available here.
The New EU Referendum Question
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?*” (*still to be made law in the government’s forthcoming Referendum Bill)
Remain a member of the European Union – 40%
Leave the European Union – 43%
Undecided – 17%
Excluding undecided voters, the results were:
Leave the European Union 51%*
Remain a member of the European Union 49%*
*to 2 decimal places 51.31/48.69
For reference, Survation’s most recent EU referendum poll, conducted between 29th June and 6th July using the same methodology and a similar but not identical question wording with a 5000 sample size (ex undecided voters) produced a 54% “Yes” (remain) and a 45% No (leave) result.
While these results are within the margin of error (a statistical tie) for this sample size (1,004), and this being just one poll, this is the first time Survation have shown a lead for “out” since November 2014, (with similar question wording) and is +6% for out/leave since our last polling
New Referendum Question Wording
There was net approval to the change in question wording (from those with a view) on the new Electoral Commission question recommendation.
Previously the government was planning to ask the referendum question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”, with the answer options a simple “Yes” or “No”.
The Electoral Commission has recommended this be changed to “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”, with the answer options “Remain a member of the European Union” or “Leave the European Union”
The follow on questions in the poll were mainly on the the topic of the current migration debate that has featured widely in the media, showing strong concern around the issue.
Finally, one question demonstrated that a significant minority of “remain” voters would consider changing their minds and voting to leave the EU should the migration crisis worsen.
Fieldwork dates: 3rd – 4th September 2015
Method: 1004 GB adults aged 18+ interviewed online.
Full tables and results for all questions put are available here.
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