New Survation polling on behalf of True North and Advisors has the SNP on 32% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 21% the Westminster voting intention. This result represents the first time that the SNP have been ahead in Westminster voting intention in Survation polling. 

This poll presents an increase in Reform’s support in Westminster voting intention by 6% since our previous poll conducted in April. While SNP support has remained stable, Labour Party support has declined by 5 points, and Conservative Party support fell by 3 points. 

Similarly in Holyrood, and one year out of the next Holyrood election, SNP support remains high at 33% in the Constituency vote, while Reform UK support rose by 7% between April and May and the party is currently head-to-head with Labour at 19%. 

Reform’s rise is likely in part due to the positive news coverage which they have received following the local elections in England last week where they won 677 seats in 23 councils, however, we have been observing a gradual rise in the party’s support across our polling.

Where are Reform’s voters coming from?

Almost 1 in 5 Labour voters (18%) are switching to Reform, while 42% of Conservative voters in the 2021 Holyrood Election would vote for the party if the election were held tomorrow. While the party is taking similar levels of support from the Conservatives compared to our previous polling published in March, they are now attracting more 2021 Labour voters than they were a month ago. 

What’s next?

If Reform’s rise splits the pro-union vote in Scotland further, it is likely that the Scottish National Party will remain the largest party in Scotland in both Holyrood and Westminster elections. Recent projections modelled by John Curtice for a Westminster parliament election puts the SNP on 58 seats, Labour on 18 and the Conservatives on 13. Reform would move into second place as the main opposition party on 21 seats, with the Lib Dems and Greens on 10 and 8 seats respectively. With the SNP poised to capitalise on a fragmented opposition, the question of independence may once again dominate Scottish political discourse.

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,020 adults aged 16+ in Scotland on behalf of True North and Advisors. Fieldwork was conducted between 2-5 May 2025. Tables are available here.

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