Survation on behalf of Good Morning Britain. 2.12.19

Details

• Fieldwork dates 26th-30th November.
• Conducted by telephone, to a combination of mobile and landline data
• Get the data: Link to data tables and methodology:

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Conservative: 42% (+2)

Labour: 33% (+3)

Liberal Democrat: 11% (-4)

The Brexit Party: 3% (-2)

Green: 4% (+1)

Another party (inc Plaid Cymru, SNP): 7% (NC)

“Another party” Breakdown:

SNP 3% (NC) PLAID 1% (NC)   OTHERS 3% (-1)

Tables can be found here.

Key points

1. The Conservative party’s vote share is essentially unchanged but Labour is +5 over the past 2 weeks. Another notable movement is the Lib Dems being -4% vs last week’s polling
2. The Brexit Party appear to have been squeezed further among seats where they are standing
3. The Conservative lead over Labour has been narrowing, 14%, 11% and now 9% in this latest poll
4. As one key explanation for LAB improvement – Labour is now doing significantly better among those who voted remain in 2016 over the past 2 weeks
5. Is this still just the Brexit election? Brexit has declined somewhat at the top issue to be (-7) on the week among all respondents. but also -6 among CON voters and -10 among 2016 leave voters
6. Jeremy Corbyn’s very low “Best Prime Minister?” ratings have improved, to some extent again this week (breakdowns below). No change to Boris Johnson’s higher ratings.

The Conservative lead over Labour has been narrowing steadily in the past 2 weeks:

But why is Labour doing better?

There are some findings from this series we have picked up, which may be linked to tactical voting or the firming of decisions that are now being made about actual vote intention vs a person’s preferred vote choice.

Labour is doing better in our polling among 2016 Remain Voters:

Almost half of respondents who voted remain in 2016 currently stating a vote choice now say they will vote Labour which is  +10 over 2 weeks ago.

No such increase (small numbers but likely declines) has been observed for LDs or GRE,  so this is some evidence of remain voters switching to Labour, potentially tactically.

15% of Remain 2016 voters currently say they are undecided who to vote for this election (nb 11% of leave voters say this also) The importance of this factor is not clear and may be of no significance and undecided can be a proxy for “would not vote”.

The importance of Brexit in deciding vote choice?

We ask each week:

What would you say is the number one issue for you when it comes to deciding your vote? (This question is unprompted, which is important).

This week’s data showed fewer respondents saying something relating to Brexit, although it remains of high importance to the Conservative base.

This could be an important aspect to monitor due to the Conservative campaign’s singular focus on making Brexit the number one election message.

The graphic below shows the top response of 1065 persons*. Crossbreak of current voting intention and 2016 EU Referendum Vote. 

*Top 3 most mentioned issues across the whole sample only.

Best Prime Minister Tracking Question.

 (Changes vs GMB Poll 2, fieldwork 20th-23rd November 2019)

Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

Break with current voting intention, 2016 vote:

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BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

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