Public surveyed on the draft Government withdrawal agreement
On the 15th November Survation conducted a snap poll on behalf of the Daily Mail to see what the public thinks about the draft Government withdrawal agreement as well as the fast changing situation in Westminster. The results offer a mixed reading for the Prime Minister.
Is there support for the draft agreement?
We asked those aware of the draft agreement whether they support or oppose it, only 27% said they supported it while just under half (49%) were opposed. The remaining respondents said they neither supported nor opposed it, or they did not know.
We gave respondents three hypothetical referendum choices (the draft agreement vs no deal; the draft agreement vs remaining; the draft deal against no deal or remaining) and in each the draft agreement was less popular than the other option.
32% would support the agreement compared to 34% who would support leaving without a deal. 34% would support the agreement against 43% who would support remaining in the EU.
Only 16% would support the deal if the other two option were remaining or leaving with no deal (43% supported the former and 28% the latter).
In the first two referendums there was a high percentage saying the did not know (34% and 23%) which could reflect both unfamiliarity with the agreement and an opposition to the two options available.
As the above table highlights a slightly higher percentage of respondents agreed that the government’s Brexit agreement is not ideal but it is better than any other available option than disagreed. Nearly half though believe that it would be better to stay in the EU than accept the agreement.
The public is also slightly more likely to believe that the Government’s Brexit agreement does not honour the result of the EU referendum than they are to say the opposite.
Should Theresa May be replaced?
The public’s confidence in Theresa May is at a low point following yesterday’s events with half saying Theresa May should resign and only a third saying she should not (the remaining respondents said they don’t know).
This does not mean that Conservative voters agree with Jacob Rees-Mogg that May should be replaced as 57% of 2017 Conservative voters said May should not resign and a further 53% of these voters say that the Conservative MPs who have called for a leadership contest to replace Theresa May as leader of the Conservative party are wrong to do so.
This compares to 47% of the general public who say the MPs are right to do so.
There is widespread belief that if Theresa May was replaced as Conservative leader, the next leader of the Conservative party should be a candidate that supported Leave in the 2016 EU Referendum – 54% of the public agree with this (including 68% of Conservative voters).
When it comes to two of the leading Brexiteers – Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg – Theresa May is preferred as Prime Minster to both.
46% prefer May over Boris Johnson and 34% prefer Johnson with the remaining 21% saying they did not know.
43% prefer Theresa May over Jacob Rees-Mogg with 31% preferring Rees-Mogg and 26% saying they did not know.
The public are slightly more likely on balance to say that replacing Theresa May as PM would increase Britain’s prospects of getting a good Brexit deal than say it would decrease the chances (38% versus 34%).
EU Referendum topline voting intention (All respondents weighted by likelihood to vote with “Don’t know” and “Refused” removed)
The poll included voting intention on a hypothetical rerun of the EU referendum, the results (broadly inline with our recent large scale polling) show Remain would win this time around.
A people’s vote?
Yesterday in the House of Commons, the Prime Minster was asked by MPs from both sides about giving the public the final say on the Brexit deal. There is some support amongst the public for a ‘people’s vote’ on the Brexit deal with 42% of respondents supporting this compared to 38% who oppose and 20% who do not know.
Survation interviewed 1070 people aged 18+ online on behalf of the Daily Mail on the 15th November. Data tables and methodology can be found here.
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BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.