Reform UK hold strong in the polls as a third of 2024 Labour voters look elsewhere
Reform UK have maintained their unprecedented challenge to the two-party system, with 30% of the public saying they would vote for the party if a general election were held tomorrow. This is a rise of three points since June, as Labour and the Conservatives receive roughly the same levels of support as in our previous polling (the former has seen no change; whilst the latter has dropped by one point).
Just over a third of Labour’s 2024 voters are currently intending to cast their vote for another party. Most significantly, almost a fifth (18%, +2 since May), are planning to vote for Reform UK. Similar woes will be felt by the Conservatives, with 3 in 10 of their 2024 voters getting flighty, and a quarter overall looking towards Reform UK as their next political home.
The governing party must decide how to respond, and concede that it is already playing catch-up. Seemingly, their focus so far has been to shapeshift into a shoddy simulacrum of Reform UK, promising to harshly tackle immigration and being ‘very encouraging’ of the Operation Raise the Colours campaign. However, as others have pointed out, telling voters not to support Farage whilst accepting – tacitly or otherwise – the premises of his political arguments is a deeply flawed strategy. Those persuaded by Reform will stick with the real thing, and progressive voters currently being courted by Polanski’s Greens and the new Corbyn and Sultana party will be alienated.
To make up ground, Starmer’s Labour needs to play the political game by rules of its own making, not those of an upstart party. In the process, it must offer a bold, original vision of the future of this country, clearly differentiating itself from those on its right and left.
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GET THE DATA.
Survation conducted an online poll of 2,151 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted between 28th August– 2nd September 2025. Tables are available here.
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