The current picture presents a clear three-horse race, as the three parties are all within each other’s margins of error in our poll.

Starmer’s lead becomes notably comfortable amongst younger voters, with the Prime Minister considered the best candidate for the job by 33% of 18-24 year olds and 49% of 25-34 year olds. However, Farage takes over pole position amongst 45-54 year olds and those aged over 65, with a +6 and +9 point lead respectively.

Similar to Starmer’s perceived aptitude to be Prime Minister, voters also trusted the Labour Party more in a majority of policy areas compared to their rivals. Labour were the most trusted in ten policy areas, with Reform in second place on three (crime, immigration, and foreign policy), whilst the only other party to be most trusted in a given area were the Greens (environment). However, for almost all policy areas it’s neck-and-neck between Labour, Reform, and the Conservatives, suggesting that no party’s messaging is leading to significant gains in voter trust across a range of issues – with the main exception being Reform’s rhetoric around immigration. 

Seemingly, Reform’s success in recent voting intention polling is driven more by Farage’s personal charisma, his ability to derive confidence from the electorate, and his capacity to lead his own party – even if this does not necessarily translate into faith in his or his party’s ability to hold a Great Office of State or form a competent government. 

Farage leads Badenoch and Starmer comfortably when we asked voters who was doing well as party leader. Similarly, he was the only leader to achieve net positive confidence scores in his ability to address certain policy areas, those being refugees and asylum seekers (+9%), immigration (+7%), and national security (+1%).

Voters are clear: they want an alternative to the two-party duopoly that has endured for the last century. They are willing to turn to the party of a politician who inspires confidence and presents as a strong leader, even if he is not felt to be the best candidate to be Prime Minister or Reform is not deemed the most trusted party across numerous policy areas. Such is the state of British politics.

Competency is no longer a priority. Voters have had decades of politicians promising outcomes they have failed to deliver on, all whilst lauding their £100 haircuts, Oxbridge degrees, and corporate conviviality. They are willing to try something – anything – new, just as long as it can induce a faith in what they are led to believe will be a better future.