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Results from latest Scottish polling

Over the weekend Survation published polling conducted online for the Sunday Post, and polling conducted by telephone on behalf of the SNP.

 

Survation polling on behalf of the Sunday Post

 

Survation polled 1036 people aged 16 and over living in Scotland, on behalf of the Sunday Post. Fieldwork was conducted online between 28th September and 2nd October 2018. Tables can be found here: https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Sunday-Post-Final-Tables-.pdf

Base for voting intention figures: Respondents likely to vote with undecided and refused removed.

 

Table 4. Westminster VI (change vs. last Survation VI, 16th July)

CON 26% (+2)   LAB 24% (+1)   SNP 41% (-1)   LD 7% (-1) Others 3% (NC)

 

Table 16. Holyrood Constituency VI (change vs. last Survation VI, 16th July)

CON 24% (NC)   LAB 23% (+2)   SNP 43% (-1)   LD 9% (NC)   Others 2% (-1)

 

Table 19. Holyrood List VI (change vs. last Survation VI, 16th July)

CON 21% (+2)   LAB 23% (+2)   SNP 32% (-1)   LD 8% (-2)   GREEN 10% (-1)   UKIP 5% (NC)   Others <1% (-1)

 

Table 10. “Should Scotland be an independent country?” (change vs. last Survation VI, 16th July)

Yes:         47% (NC)

No:          53% (NC)

 

Table 26. “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” (change vs. last Survation VI, 29th January)

Leave:           34% (NC)

Remain:       66% (NC)

 

Table 29. Does the prospect of the UK leaving the European Union make you more or less likely to support Scottish independence?

More likely to support independence:                          36%

No more or less likely to support independence:      37%

Less likely to support independence:                           20%

Don’t know:                                                                            8%

 

Table 30. To what extent do you have confidence in the UK Government to secure the best possible Brexit deal?

A lot of confidence Some confidence Not much confidence No confidence Don’t know
5% 20% 30% 40% 6%

 

Table 31. Theresa May recently declared that there was an ‘’impasse’’ between the UK and the EU in the Brexit negotiations.

If this cannot be resolved before the official exit date of March 2019, what is your preferred option?

The UK should leave without a withdrawal agreement:             29%

The UK should not leave without a withdrawal agreement:      51%

Don’t know:                                                                                            19%

 

Table 32. When the UK Government’s negotiations over the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU are complete, would you…?

Support holding a referendum asking the public of they will accept or reject a deal:  49%

Oppose a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject a deal: 29%

Don’t know: 22%

 

Table 33. If there was to be a referendum asking the public if they will accept or reject the deal, which of the following comes closest to your view?

There should be an option to remain in the EU:            55%

There should not be an option to remain in the EU:    32%

Don’t know:                                                                               12%

 

Survation polling on behalf of the SNP

 

Survation polled 1013 people aged 16+ living in Scotland, on behalf of the SNP. The survey was conducted by telephone. Fieldwork took place 3rd-5th October 2018. Tables can be found here: https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/SNP-final-tables.pdf

Base for voting intention figures: Respondents likely to vote with undecided and refused removed.

 

Table 7. Westminster VI

CON 28%   LAB 26%   SNP 37%   LD 6%   Others 2%

 

Table 23. Holyrood Constituency VI

CON 24%   LAB 23%   SNP 44%   LD 8%   Others 1%

 

Table 29. Holyrood List VI

CON 25%   LAB 22%   SNP 40%   LD 8%   GREEN 4%   Others 2%

 

Table 15. “Should Scotland be an independent country?”

Yes:         46%

No:          54%

 

Table 33. If the UK leaves the EU as planned in March 2019 and there was subsequently a referendum on Scottish independence, how would you vote?

(Would not vote, undecided and refused removed)

Yes:         50%

No:          50%

 

Table 37. If the UK leaves the EU with no deal, and there is a subsequent referendum on Scottish independence, how would you vote?

(Would not vote, undecided and refused removed)

Yes:         52%

No:          48%

Daral Williams

Daral Williams

Project Manager

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