Scotland Voting Intention: Labour’s Westminster Share Up Three Points Since September 2017
Survation’s latest Scotland poll was released yesterday (10/12/2017) in the Sunday Post. It shows Labour’s voting intention for the Westminster Parliament up three points from September, to 29%; the Scottish National Party (SNP), is down one point over the same period, to 38%; the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party is down two points, to 24% and the Scottish Liberal Democrats are unchanged, on 7%.
Scotland Westminster Voting Intention: September – December 2017
| September 13th | December 6th | |
| Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party | 26% | 24% |
| Scottish Labour Party | 26% | 29% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 7% | 7% |
| Scottish National Party | 39% | 38% |
| Another Party | 2% | 3% |
If we put these Westminster voting intention figures into Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus seat predictor, it forecasts Labour to gain six seats, up to 13 Scottish seats in Westminster; SNP lose four, down to 31 seats; Conservatives lose two, down to 11 seats and all other parties are unchanged.
Scotland Westminster Voting Intention – the Effect on Seats
| Party | 2017 Votes | 2017 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
| CON | 28.60% | 13 | 23.90% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| LAB | 27.10% | 7 | 29.00% | 6 | 0 | +6 | 13 |
| LIB | 6.80% | 4 | 6.90% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| UKIP | 0.20% | 0 | 0.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 0.20% | 0 | 0.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SNP | 36.90% | 35 | 37.70% | 2 | 6 | -4 | 31 |
| Minor | 0.30% | 0 | 2.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish Independence, Brexit and Holyrood
Support for independence remains unchanged when compared with September’s figures, on 46% for Yes, against 54% for No.
| Indy Ref II | September 13th | December 6th |
| Yes | 46% | 46% |
| No | 54% | 54% |
Scotland shows no sign of shifting away from its heavy pro-Remain leaning, with 69% of this poll supporting Remain, against only 31% for Leave.
| EU Referendum “tomorrow” | |
| Leave | 31% |
| Remain | 69% |
Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention: September – December 2017
Scottish Labour will see similar good news in their constituency voting intention for Holyrood, the Scottish Parliament, where the party is also up three points from September, to 28%; the SNP is down three points, to 39%; Conservatives are down two points, to 24% and the Liberal Democrats are again unchanged, on 7%.
| September 13th | December 6th | |
| Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party | 26% | 24% |
| Scottish Labour Party | 25% | 28% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 7% | 7% |
| Scottish National Party | 42% | 39% |
| Another Party | 2% | 2% |
Holyrood List Voting Intention: Voting Intention: September – December 2017
| September 13th | December 6th | |
| Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party | 21% | 21% |
| Scottish Labour Party | 25% | 24% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 10% | 10% |
| Scottish National Party | 31% | 32% |
| Scottish Green Party | 9% | 10% |
| UKIP | 3% | 3% |
| Another Party | 9% | 1% |
Survation interviewed 1,006 Scottish adults online from December 1st to 5th, 2017. Full tables can be found here.
< Back
