Do Scots Want A Second Independence Referendum?
On behalf of Daily Record & Daily Mirror, Survation conducted polling by telephone Saturday looking at attitudes to a potential second Scottish Independence Referendum.Full data tables can be viewed here.
Sample Size – 1002 Scottish Adults aged 16+.
Fieldwork Date – June 25th 2016
Method – Telephone (named person stratified sample landline & mobile phone combination contact points).
Weighting Targets – Data were weighted by sex, age, 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum vote (see note 1), 2016 Holyrood Constituency vote, likelihood to vote, and 8 category Scottish region.
EU Referendum Voting By Party
Although declared future likelihood to voting & declared turnout (2) is sytematically exaggerated in opinion polls, the declared Leave/Remain percentages by party among Scots in the EU Referendum were as follows:
Declared EU Referendum Splits Based on Holyrood 2016 Past Vote
Declared EU Referendum Splits By Age
16-34 Voted Leave 23% Voted Remain 77%
35-54 Voted Leave 24% Voted Remain 76%
55+ Voted Leave 33% Voted Remain 67%
Do Scots Want A Second Independence Referendum Post Brexit?
Following the result of the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union, where the UK voted to leave, do you think?
Scotland should hold a second independence referendum – 41.9%
Scotland should not hold a second independence referendum – 44.7%
Don’t know – 13.4%
=> Public support for a second referendum is split, with a small majority (52/48) of Scots currently against holding a second referendum:
If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question Should Scotland be an Independent country?, how would you vote?
Yes – 47.8%
No – 41.3%
Undecided – 9.1%
Refused/WNV – 1.8%
Base: Likely to Vote with undecided / refused removed
If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question “Should Scotland be an Independent country?”, how would you vote?
Yes – 54%
No – 46%
Scottish Independence past vote shows evidence of false recall – which is backed up by near perfect balance of recall for Holyrood 2016 vote so this sample does appear to be politically balanced
Turnout was lower than expected in the UK’s independence referendum in Scotland on a relative basis vs more “leave” parts of the country. If higher turnout could be considered to have favoured remain this may explain this sample’s lower declared remain % vs actual 62/38 for Scotland as a whole. Turnout for a second Scotland Independence Referendum would be significantly higher based on the 2014 actual turnout %.