With two weeks to go until the Holyrood election, our latest poll of Scottish opinion shows a relatively unchanged picture. Constituency voting intention has the SNP in front with 35%, followed by Reform UK and Labour each on 20%, and the Conservatives then on 13%, the Liberal Democrats with 10%, and the Greens on 1%. The poll used ballot prompts, showing respondents just the parties and candidates standing in their specific constituency, which explains levels of support for the Greens who are only fielding six constituency candidates.

In fact, Green support across the country appears to be holding steady. In the regional list voting intention, we found that the Greens are identical to where they were back in March: 11% (-). The SNP saw a drop to 29% (-3), with Reform UK (19%, +1), Labour (17%, -), Conservatives (13%, -), and the Liberal Democrats (8%, -) all following in the same order as before. 

Reform UK are the biggest winners (or losers) of the contest to be the party Scots least want to see in government

When asked who they would least like to see in government, Reform UK came out on top with 34%. The SNP followed with 17%, and most of the other parties hovered between 10-15%: Labour (14%), Green (11%), and Conservatives (10%). The Liberal Democrats were the lowest preference of only 3% of Scots, and 10% said they did not know who they least wanted to see in government.

There is an unsurprising split along party lines here. Two-fifths (39%) of Reform UK would-be constituency voters identify the SNP as their least preferred party of government, with 26% opting for Labour, and over a fifth (23%) noting the Greens. 

On the other hand, three-fifths (58%) of SNP prospective constituency voters consider Reform UK the party they would least like to see in government, matched by the exact same proportion of those intending to vote Labour (58%). Looking at regional list voting intention, almost four-fifths (78%) of those planning to vote Green have Reform as their lowest preference. 

Any chance of an SNP majority?

With John Swinney boldly predicting an SNP majority in May, the results of our latest poll beg to differ. The SNP’s one hope, it seems, would be to channel anti-Reform sentiment into a tactical vote for the party. With only a fortnight to go, there’s not long until we find out if such an eventuality comes to pass.

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,008 adults aged 16+ in Scotland on behalf of Ballot Box Scotland. Fieldwork was conducted between 14th-21st April 2026. Tables are available here.

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