Politics, Government & Current Affairs

Still A 3-Way Marginal – New Polling In Eastleigh Constituency – Survation for Alan Bown

Survation has conducted a new poll in the Eastleigh constituency – 506 voters, fieldwork April 14-17th on behalf of Alan Bown which will appear in tomorrow’s Mail On Sunday. Full data tables can be viewed here:

Voting Intention Figures – Westminster (change vs Eastleigh By-election Feb 2013)

UKIP 32 (+4)
CON 28 (+3)

LD 27 (-5)

LAB 12 (+2)

AP 3 (-2)

Voting Intention Figures – Eastleigh Borough Council

LD 39%

UKIP 27%

CON 23%

LAB 9%

AP 2%

  • This is the first published constituency level poll ever to show UKIP in first place, assisted by Eastleigh’s re-confirmed 3-way marginal status
  • Earlier work was featured in The Guardian, editorial can be found here and here
  • Voting intention was conducted without candidate names as the Conservatives and UKIP are yet to declare candidates for 2015
  • Top local issue in the seat was “less construction of buildings / stricter planning permission” Liberal Democrat MP Mike Thornton and UKIP have been engaging each over this issue in the local press
  • 29% of people declared their top national issue in the seat to be “too much immigration” ahead of “The Level of Unemployment” – 15% and “The State of The Economy In General” 16%
  • Eastleigh voters are not particularly eurosceptic – they would narrowly vote to leave the EU by 38% to 37%
  • Westminster voting intention was politically weighted by recall of 2013 by-election vote

Full details and data tables can be viewed here:


Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules

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