With the Scottish Parliament election a little over a month away, our latest poll conducted between 16th and 23rd March has the SNP clearly ahead on 35% (-2 since February 25th) of the constituency vote and 32% (-1) of the regional list. This puts the party well within touching distance of a majority, being only three seats short.

Between the potential runner-ups, Labour and Reform UK are both level on 19% (+1 for Labour; +2 for Reform) of the constituency voting intention, though the latter sits on 18% (+1) of the regional list voting intention compared to the former’s 17% (-).

In a straight head-to-head, Labour overtake Reform

When asked how they would vote if the only parties likely to win in their constituency were Labour or Reform, Labour took 37% of the prospective vote share, gaining a decisive advantage over Reform’s 31%. This lead came from the party’s ability to take a third (34%) of those otherwise planning to vote for the SNP in such a scenario, as well as 44% of would-be Liberal Democrats and 48% of Greens. On the other hand, Reform would gain 43% of those previously intending to vote for the Conservatives, though they fail to win over more than 1 in 10 of any other voter group.

A similar phenomenon plays out when we look at who Scots would prefer to be First Minister between Anas Sarwar and Malcolm Offord. Sarwar takes a commanding lead over Offord, with almost three-fifths (58%) compared to Offord’s two-fifths (42%). Only those planning to vote Reform (84%) or Conservative (57%) preferred Offord as First Minister, with a majority of all other prospective party voters opting for Sarwar.

If the anti-Reform coalition comes together, will it dash the SNP’s hopes of a majority?

With little time left, the deciding factor in the race for second place appears to be whether or not the anti-Reform vote can be organised and mobilised effectively in the constituencies where it is needed. If successful in doing so, then the data suggests Labour are in a good position to become the second biggest party in Holyrood. If not, then the outcome could very well go either way, with the victor decided in the final moments of the campaign.

If Labour is able to triumph over Reform in such a manner, the implications could be significant for the SNP. When faced with the scenario of only Labour or Reform having a realistic chance of winning in their constituency, only half (50%) of SNP voters would stick with the party using their constituency ballot. With fine margins ultimately deciding whether or not they get their Holyrood majority, if an anti-Reform coalition came together for the benefit of Labour then the chances of an SNP majority start to look slim.

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,068 adults aged 16+ in Scotland on behalf of Diffley Partnership. Fieldwork was conducted between 16th-23rd March 2026. Tables are available here.

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