Understanding your audience isn’t just for brands: How segmentation teaches progressives about winning voters
Since May, Reform have established a consistent and clear lead in Westminster voting intention polling. With our latest MRP, produced on behalf of 38Degrees ahead of the Labour Party Conference, predicting that Reform would win 293 seats if a general election were held tomorrow, Farage appears to be in a strong position to form the next government. This compared to Labour winning 191 seats, down 210 from the 2024 General Election. Such predictions lead one to wonder if all hope is lost for the party in government.
Our segmentation analysis in partnership with 38Degrees suggests not. Public opinion is a nuanced and fluid entity, but it is one that thorough segmentation can make manageable, understandable, and, most importantly, actionable. In this instance, our analysis found that 54% of the British electorate belong to a “progressive majority” – a centre and left-of-centre body united by some issues, divided on others, yet containing the possibility of forming a meaningful electoral coalition.
Within this majority, we identified five distinct groups, each defined by its own priorities, concerns, and demographic make-up. Taken together, they represent a potential base from which the next election could be won – so long as they are not treated as a monolithic bloc. For any party seeking to channel the political power of the progressive majority, success depends on understanding not just what unites these groups, but also what threatens to place intractable divisions between them.
The groups
The 4,594 people making up the progressive majority (out of a total 8,543 polled) fell into the following five groups:
– Open-Hearted Collectivists (25%): strongly pro-immigration, community-minded
– Guarded Localists (19%): cautious on immigration, focussed on national cohesion
– Pragmatic Youth (28%): the youngest cluster, moderate and middle-ground in most areas
– Rooted Traditionalists (16%): older, economically on the left but socially conservative
– Cosmopolitan Optimists (12%): urban, highly educated, affluent, pro-state and optimistic about the future
Immigration
With immigration now right up there with the cost of living and the NHS as a top issue facing the country, it is interesting to note that such sentiment does not track evenly across the progressive majority. Indeed, compared to the national average, progressives are much more unlikely to rank the issue in their top three facing the country – with 34% doing so compared to a national average of 48% (only rooted traditionalists exceeded the national average, on 63%). This would suggest that increasing the salience of immigration is not a step on the path towards winning over our segments.
As we found, the perceived importance of immigration, as well as general perceptions to it, constitute the key dividing line between the five groups. It is immediately apparent who the outliers are in the progressive majority: rooted traditionalists and guarded localists. For them, immigration is the second most important issue facing the country, ahead of the NHS (+2 for the latter, +6 for the former) and, in the case of rooted traditionalists, only slightly behind cost of living in the top spot (-4). For others, it is a much lower priority issue, reaching lows of 22% amongst cosmopolitan optimists and 17% of open-hearted collectivists.
It is really when looking at the beliefs held towards immigration, though, that the divides between the five groups widen considerably.
One would be forgiven, at this stage, for thinking rooted traditionalists – and potentially guarded localists – do not belong to the progressive majority at all. On this subject, they are outliers, at polar extremes compared to the other three groups, especially the rooted traditionalists. Less than 10% of this group think immigration is good for the UK; in the case of guarded localists, it is a little under two-fifths. On the other hand, supermajorities of open-hearted collectivists and cosmopolitan optimists view immigration as a good thing, with pragmatic youth occupying a middle position between the other groups.
A similar discrepancy occurred between the groups when asked if the UK should allow more immigration, even if it changed the make-up of communities, or reduce immigration, even if that came with a reduction of workers in some sectors.
Looking at the evidence, immigration would not appear to be the foundational issue to unite the progressive majority on. However, our analysis uncovered myriad ways such a coalition could be held together that don’t involve a contradictory immigration position.
Cost of Living and the Economy
On the most important issue for the progressive majority, we find a much more united front, though there are subtle nuances below the surface. With pragmatic youth and guarded localists, there is something of an exception. Despite still setting great store by the cost of living, they do so at a lower rate than the average across the progressive majority. Almost a third of pragmatic youth have the cost of living as a top two issue they would like to see the government make progress on by the next election (-8 on the progressive average), whilst 32% of guarded localists regarded the cost of living as being in their top two (-6 on the average).
On economic and financial areas more widely, we again see discrepancies between the groups, though significant numbers in all share similar views. Nestled between the NHS and immigration are two points where the progressive majority feel that action would improve their confidence in the government: growing the economy (44% average) and having more money in their pocket (37%). Growing the economy is clearly a greater concern for open-hearted collectivists (+8) and cosmopolitan optimists (+24), whereas the other groups sit either on the progressive average (guarded localists) or significantly below in the case of pragmatic youth (-10) and rooted traditionalists (-13). A greater proportion of these latter two groups instead prioritise having more money in their own pockets, with 37% of pragmatic youth and 39% of rooted traditionalists stating that this would increase their confidence in the government.
These variations, unlike with immigration, should not give too much pause for concern to any party seeking to unite the progressive majority. Cost of living and the economy are still notable areas of interest for each of our five segments. Subtle changes of emphasis are what differentiate the groups here, so it would be far from impossible to cater to the interests of the progressive majority as a whole.
Health and the NHS
Whilst cost of living tops the table of most important issues facing the country, as seen above the NHS is the issue for the progressive majority as a whole where they want to see the government make progress ahead of the next election, as well as the one which would increase their confidence in the government the most.
The NHS also represents the area where votes can be most clearly won from the progressive majority. Almost 7 in 10 (68%) would be either much or somewhat more likely to change their vote if they experienced improvements with their NHS experience, with only pragmatic youth and open-hearted collectivists dipping below the progressive average. A clear minority of both groups, though, say that an improved NHS experience would not make a difference to their vote. In summation, given its importance, the NHS is an open goal for anyone seeking to court progressive opinion. Success in delivering on the nation’s health service is the best way to increase confidence in the government as well as the most likely path to winning progressive votes.
Change
Regardless of the issue, one thing is clear: the progressive majority want change. Many of them voted for it in 2024, but it is beyond doubt that most still see pressing issues that need tackling – and fast.
Across the three main issue areas for progressives, a strategy emerges that could unite all segments, whilst minimising the risk of instilling division. Firstly, the salience of immigration would need to be toned down, with any rhetoric on the subject occupying a moderate, pragmatic position, as opposed to being overtly pro- or anti-immigration in principle. Secondly, much more attention should be paid to the cost of living and the NHS. Increasing the visibility of both, and delivering tangible improvements on these issues, is the surest way to unite the five groups that make up the progressive majority.
Campaigning on, or delivering, change along those lines is the most likely way a progressive party could unlock the untapped potential uncovered by our segmentation analysis.
The importance of segmentation
Audiences, whether political or otherwise, do not arrive in neat, homogenous blocs. There are always important lines of difference, with various subjects leading either to convergence or divergence. As such, approaching those groups with monolithic and simplistic messages will not work. In order to get the most value out of a target market, segmentation analyses can deliver concrete, actionable insights.
If your organisation in politics, business, or the third sector is aiming to understand, reach, and unite disparate bodies of opinion that form part of a greater whole, Survation would be delighted to support you.
To learn more or discuss your next project, contact our team at researchteam@survation.com.
For client services, contact John Gibb on 0203 818 9661, or view our services.
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