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Westminster Voting Intention Update

Monday, September 5th.

Westminster Voting Intention. It has been some time since we published Westminster voting intention figures, the last figures we shared were all the way back on July 8th – the day after Boris Johnson announced his intention to resign. The fieldwork for that polling was conducted in the torrid period immediately prior to the Prime Minister’s decision to step down and showed a whopping 14-point Labour lead.

Today’s update, with fieldwork conducted at the end of last week and the last ever with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister has Labour with a 10 point lead over the Conservatives.

This type of result in a General Election would result in a slim Labour majority, of approximately 12, using Electoral Calculus’ regional swing model with the Conservatives suffering perhaps 136 seat losses. Notable casualties would be: George Eustice, Iain Duncan Smith, Alok Sharma, Robert Buckland and one Boris Johnson.

What difference does adding Liz Truss as Conservative Party leader make?

We subsequently asked voting intention in a different way, this time voting intention in a Westminster election where all current party leaders were named including Liz Truss named as the leader of the Conservative party.

The effect was that Labour’s vote share extended to 46% (+3) and the Conservatives party share dropped to 29 (-5) (the change was technically -4.5, rounds to 5)

While voters may focus less on a party’s leader than the results that this type of question induces, a result of this kind in a General Election would result a Labour majority of approximately 180, using Electoral Calculus’ regional swing model. The Conservatives would suffer perhaps 224 seat losses, cutting vast swathes of the blue benches. Notable casualties would be George Eustice, Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Dominic Raab, Robert Halfon, Robert Jenrick, Andrea Leadsom, Johnny Mercer, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Robert Buckland, Boris Johnson, John Redwood and Ben Wallace.

It may be unfair to rush to judge Liz Truss’ potential as Prime Minister before her tenure has even begun, but the public are clearly sceptical on her potential as they simultaneously react to the departure of Boris Johnson.

Get The Data

Data tables for this research can be found here. Survation conducted online polling of 1,013 adults in the United Kingdom on 31st August 2022.

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