Confidence in the government shows some green shoots, as Burnham posts improvements on economy and immigration

In Survation’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, Labour lead Reform UK by three points, 27% to 24%. The Conservatives are on 21%, the Liberal Democrats on 11% and the Greens on 7%.

This is the third of our polls in a row with Labour ahead. Two months into Andy Burnham’s premiership, Labour are eight points higher than in our final poll under Keir Starmer in June.

Compared to our last poll on 10 September, no party’s value has changed by more than a point, and Labour’s lead is inside the margin of error.

• Labour 27% (−1)

• Reform UK 24% (+1)

• Conservative 21% (=)

• Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)

• Green 7% (−1)

• SNP 3% (+1)

• Plaid Cymru 2% (=)

• Restore Britain 2% (=)

• Other 4% (=)
  The picture since JuneLabour have climbed from 19% in our final poll under Starmer to 28% and 27% in our last two polls, their strongest position since May 2025. Reform UK are eight points below their February 2026 peak of 32%.The Greens, who reached 12% earlier in the year, are now on 7%, their lowest share since May 2025. The Conservatives are on 21%, matching their highest share since January 2025, although they have moved within a narrow band of 18% to 21% since early last year.

  Confidence in the government

  Confidence in the government remains negative on all ten issues we ask about, but it has recovered some ground since our poll a month ago. On immigration, the NET score (confident minus not confident) has moved from −43 in August to −34, and on refugees and asylum seekers from −44 to −35. On the economy it has improved from −27 to −21.

  Education remains the government’s strongest area at −6, although that is down from −1 in August, and national security has slipped from −6 to −10.

  The leaders

  Andy Burnham remains the only party leader with a clearly positive rating. 48% say he is doing well as Labour leader and 32% say he is not, a NET score of +16, up from +14 a month ago. Kemi Badenoch is on +9, Ed Davey on +7, Nigel Farage on −12 and Zack Polanski on −15.

  Asked whether they like or dislike each leader, the order is the same at the top: Burnham is on +16, Badenoch +8 and Davey +1, while Farage (−18) and Polanski (−26) are the most disliked.
  
  

   

Looking forward

The polling picture remains tight ahead of the Budget, and it’s possible Labour, Reform or the Conservatives could switch places over the next few weeks and months.

Burnham’s greatest asset remains his personal rating. At +16, his net approval is around 30 points higher than Starmer’s best, and 71 points higher than his worst (−55, in June). Still, on current numbers it looks unlikely that any party would win a majority, making a hung parliament the most likely outcome.

Methodology

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,224 adults aged 18+ living in the UK. Fieldwork took place on 22 to 23 September 2026. After quality checks the achieved sample was 1,224. Data were weighted to the profile of all UK adults aged 18+ by age, sex, region, nation, highest level of qualification, social grade, household income, 2024 General Election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote.

Voting intention figures are based on respondents likely to vote, factored by likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused removed (1,026 respondents). Changes are against Survation’s poll of 10 September 2026. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Full data tables are available here