Survation conducted a telephone poll of 502 adults in Clacton between the 16th and 24th of July on behalf of Mandate Research, ahead of the 13 August by-election.

Nigel Farage leads Count Binface by 73% to 20% once undecideds are excluded, a margin of 53 points. While the headline figure leaves little doubt, there’s a larger story underneath it.

What the by-election is about, in voters’ own words

We asked respondents what they think the Clacton by-election is about. Unprompted, 45% talk about Farage personally – his motives, his conduct, his standing. That rises to 54% once answers naming him in procedural terms are included, such as “voting Nigel back in.”

Only 12% raise anything specifically about Clacton, and only 5% give local content as their main answer.

Some respondents believed the whole thing is a waste of time:

“I think it’s about egos. I think it’s a farce. It wasn’t necessary. It’s wasting public money, something that shouldn’t be happening.” Female, 55+, undecided

A closely related group makes it about Farage’s personality and motives.

“Nigel Farage’s vanity. He said it’s about the established but they aren’t running. I think its a publicity stunt but it’s not gone his way already.” Male, 55+, undecided

“Absolutely ridiculous, waste of tax payers money. Farage being a showman and we have to pay for it.” Female, 35-54, undecided

A smaller group links the by-election to the financial investigations, although perceptions of this differ between Farage being attacked by the media, and him trying to detract from the investigation:

“Nigel is being harassed over everything he does, and they’re trying to get him out because of the £5 million. They’ll find any way they can to attack him.” Male, 55+, Nigel Farage (Reform UK)

“A way for Nigel Farage to escape his scandal and turn it around into a garbage of a show where we are voting between Nigel Farage or a man with a bin on his head.” Female, 35-54, Count Binface (Count Binface Party)

Where local content surfaces it is almost always generic: “make Clacton better,” “having an MP who works for the area,” “regeneration.” Specific policies, services or grievances are rarely mentioned.

How high can Farage go?

Thirty-four candidates are on the ballot, a record for a UK parliamentary election. The title was previously held by the 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by-election, at 26 candidates.

Farage leads on 73%, with Count Binface on 20%, Laurence Fox on 2% and other candidates on 5% combined. Farage’s lead holds among men and women, in every ward, and among those in and out of work.

Base: respondents in Clacton likely to vote in the by-election, factored by likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused removed. Sample: 502 adults in the constituency. Survation for Mandate Research, telephone, 16-24 July 2026.

Farage’s biggest asset is voter retention. 97% of decided 2024 Reform voters say they will back him again in August – and counting those yet to decide, 83% already say they will cast a vote for the former and likely future Clacton MP.

Asked to treat the contest as a straight two-horse race, Farage takes 69% and Binface 31%. Farage’s share does not grow, while Binface’s rises 11 points, cutting the lead from 53 to 38 points.

Binface is placed to benefit from the main parties’ withdrawal: in a forced choice his share rises from 24% to 39% among 2024 Conservatives, and from 50% to 61% among 2024 Labour voters.

The £5 million story – what’s the impact?

Awareness of the story which led Farage to call the by-election in the first place is high: 81% have heard at least something about the donation (47% a lot, 34% something), against 8% who have heard hardly anything and 7% nothing at all.

However, voters are undecided on its relevance: 35% say Farage acted within the rules, 25% that he acted wrongfully, 8% say both or neither and 32% do not know. The opinions follow partisan lines – 63% of 2024 Reform voters say he acted within the rules, against 38% of 2024 Conservatives.

The story has no net effect on the vote here: 21% are more likely to back Reform, 24% less likely, 42% unchanged. The split follows partisan lines – 2024 Reform voters come out 39 points more likely to support the party; everyone else comes out 32 points less likely.

What to watch on 13 August

While Farage should win comfortably, it will be asked whether the by-election achieved his goals. He called the by-election to be judged by his constituents, and 45% of them describe the contest as being about him, rather than about them.

High turnout on the night could help Farage claim a mandate, although sceptics will argue it was a virtually unopposed election. Binface’s vote share will also offer an insight into how well the anti-Farage vote consolidated, and how much the Count’s campaign cut into the real world, away from his strong online presence and support. A potential 20% here would be a seismic shift from his previous best Westminster by-election result of 0.6% in the 2023 Uxbridge and South Ruislip race – and not forgetting he claimed just 95 votes in Makerfield weeks ago.

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted a telephone poll of 502 adults aged 18+ living in the Clacton constituency on behalf of Mandate Research. Fieldwork was conducted between 16th – 24th July 2026. Tables are available here.

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