Survation’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted 2nd to 5th October 2026, has Labour on 30% (+1), Reform UK on 24% (+1), the Conservatives on 19% (=), the Liberal Democrats on 9% (=) and the Greens on 8% (−1). Changes are against our poll of 29th September 2026.

Labour leads Reform UK by 6 points. Labour’s 30% is its highest since December 2024, and improved by one point since our last poll, with Labour ranging from 27% to 30% across our last five polls. It is also the third poll of Burnham’s premiership to have a Labour lead outside the margin of error.

Reform have been steadily between 23-24% in the last five polls, while the Conservatives at 19% are at the low end of their recent range.

Labour now have a clear upward trajectory since June, with Reform declining since their peak earlier in the year. The Greens have also fallen from their high of 12% earlier in the year, at 8% just one day before the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

 Andy Burnham continues to be the most liked party leader, improving from the previous high. Kemi Badenoch decreases slightly from last time, but is still the only other leader in the positives. 

•   Andy Burnham: net +19 (47% like, 28% dislike), against +16 on 23rd September 2026.
• Kemi Badenoch: net +5 (36% like, 31% dislike), against +8 on 23rd September 2026.
• Ed Davey: net −2 (27% like, 29% dislike), against +1 on 23rd September 2026.
• Nigel Farage: net −15 (34% like, 49% dislike), against −18 on 23rd September 2026.
• Zack Polanski: net −22 (21% like, 43% dislike), against −26 on 23rd September 2026.

Confidence in the government’s ability to address the issues:

Net confidence in the government’s ability to handle each area ranges from −2 on education to −34 on refugees and asylum seekers. Since our poll of 23rd September 2026, the largest movements are on the NHS (−13 to −6), the economy (−21 to −15) and national security (−10 to −5).

What’s next for Labour?

 Labour will now be looking to consolidate their lead at or above 30% – something they haven’t been able to do since the months immediately after the 2024 GE. As we wrote this week, Kemi Badenoch’s popularity doesn’t seem to be translating to vote share – whereas Andy Burnham has both popularity and vote share on his side right now, with the Budget being the next test.

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GET THE DATA.

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,974 adults aged 18+ in the UK on their voting intentions. Fieldwork was conducted 3-5 October 2026. Changes are versus our poll of 29th September 2026.. Tables are available here.

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