Survation / Daily Mirror Poll On Local Elections And Trust In Government
National State Of The Parties (plus change since our last state of the parties survey April 7th)
LAB 37% +2 CON 30% (No Change) LD 12.5% (+1.5) UKIP 9% (-2) AP 12% (NC)
Local Election Overall Voting Intention 2012
LAB 32 CON 26 LD 15 GRE 8 UKIP 7 BNP 3 SNP 3 PC 1 OTH 6
Applying the local poll to the national local council equivalent vote “last time” – (2008) in a fairly simplistic fashion for the 3 main parties contesting and contending for most council elections we get:
LAB +8 CON -17 LD – 9
Implied CON to LAB swing is 12.5%
Implied CON to LD swing is 4%
Implied LD to LAB swing is 8.5%
That would see a huge (800-1000 maybe) Labour gain, mostly at the expense of the Tories but also the Lib Dems.
Regarding turnout, 49% say they are an “8, 9 or 10” where 10 is absolutely certain to vote.
- When asked which of the three main parties they trust most to protect local services in their area, 47% of respondents chose Labour while 30% opted for the Conservatives and 24% said the Lib Dems.
- Regarding which of the three main parties they trust most to protect the NHS, 53% of those surveyed said Labour while 27% chose the Conservatives and 21% opted for the Lib Dems.
- 54% of respondents have been personally affected by cuts to public services in their area (14% significantly, 40% somewhat) while 41% have not. Excluding don’t knows, 57% have been affected while 43% have not.
- When asked whether they are better or worse off than they were two years ago, 35% of those polled reported no change, while 53% of people say they are worse off. Only 11% say they are better off.
Respondents were posed the question: ‘relative to this time of austerity and the need to “tighten our belts” to what extent do you believe that the Government is personally committed to the statement that “we’re all in this together”?’
- Of those who expressed an opinion as to whether they believed the government’s personal commitment (removing neither believe nor disbelieve, and don’t know) 78% of people do not believe the government is personally committed to the statement.
Closest to your opinion?
Respondents were then asked: which of the following statements is closest to your opinion? The results are below.
The cuts are impacting everyone equally – 20%
The cuts are having a greater impact on poorer people – 80%
I trust Chancellor George Osborne with the nation’s finances – 25%
I do not trust Chancellor George Osborne with the nation’s finances – 75%
The Coalition government are destroying the National Health Service – 64%
The Coalition government are not destroying the National Health Service – 36%
The Coalition Government understands how hard life is for many pensioners – 25%
The Coalition Government do not understand how hard life is for many pensioners – 75%
Nick Clegg should lead his party out of the Conservative-led coalition government immediately – 55%*
Nick Clegg should NOT lead his party out of the Conservative-led coalition government immediately – 45%
*Note – 64% of Lib Dem 2010 voters believe Nick Clegg should lead his party out of the Conservative-led coalition government immediately
Full data tables are available here.